The $1 billion box-office movie is dead - for now
- Because of the pandemic, "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker" will likely be the last movie to cross $1 billion for some time.
- Yet Imax CEO Richard Gelfond said a film could hit that threshold this year if enough people were vaccinated.
- Films like "Spider-Man 3" or "Avatar 2" could reach billion-dollar status when they premiere.
The coronavirus pandemic upended the box office last year.
Theatrical releases were delayed or pushed back. Some films, including Pixar's "Soul" and Disney's "Mulan," were sent to streaming, while others, such as "My Spy" and "Coming 2 America," were sold to streamers. Warner Bros. went a different route altogether, deciding to release its entire theatrical slate simultaneously on HBO Max.
In a year when there should've been at least a few billion-dollar movies after a record-breaking 2019, we didn't wind up with a single movie crossing half a billion. The closest we came was "Bad Boys for Life" ($426.5 million) and the Chinese film "The Eight Hundred," the highest-grossing movie of 2020, with $461.3 million.
The last time a movie failed to cross $1 billion was in 2007. Still, it's a milestone so rare that only 47 movies have ever achieved it.
Read more: Only 47 movies have ever hit $1 billion at the box office - here they are
As the pandemic continues and theaters remain closed or opened at limited capacity, will another movie reach that benchmark? For this year, the answer is likely no.
But industry experts said that the box-office slump was temporary and another movie would cross that threshold again. It'll just take time, herd immunity, and a mammoth movie.
What does success even look like for a movie right now?
Usually it's very clear-cut which films are performing well at the box-office and which missed the mark. Weekend box-office numbers immediately told analysts and studios what overperformed and underperformed.
If something was No. 1 for the weekend in North America, it became an easy marketing tool to help get more viewers into theaters the next weekend.
But when some theaters are closed worldwide - including 60% in the US and Canada - and others operating at 25% capacity, we're not getting the same box-office reports weekly.
Read more: How the $100 billion Hollywood machine is scrambling to come back after its worst year in decades
"The Croods: A New Age" brought in $9.7 million on opening weekend instead of the expected $30 million to $40 million it would have made over the Thanksgiving holiday. (The first film opened to $43.6 million, in 2013.)
How do you even make sense of which films are performing well right now, when some went straight to video on demand ("Trolls World Tour") or have been swooped up by streaming services? You don't.
Netflix, which has been notoriously private about its streaming analytics, will tell you its top 10 movies and TV shows. But the problem, as many have pointed out, is that a view may be counted regardless of whether someone is streaming content for two minutes or makes it through the end of a show or film.
"It's hard because at least with the box office I can be a box-office analyst. I can analyze hard numbers," Exhibitor Relations' senior analyst Jeff Bock said, referring to how success for a film is measured right now. "I can't analyze these mythological top 10s. I just can't because there's just nothing to base them off of."
Bock said that something like Netflix's "Away" series, featuring Hilary Swank, which was in Netflix's top 10 for a while, but wound up getting canceled after one season.
"To be accurate, you need to have a solid foundation, and that's not there yet," Bock added. "I don't know what the aggregate is going to be in the future, but it definitely needs one."
We could have a billion-dollar movie this year, but not from Warner Bros.
Out of the five major film studios, WB's decision to simultaneously release its full 2021 theatrical slate in theaters and on HBO Max leaves them largely out of the box-office conversation.
"None of their films on their list will even come close to a billion now because it's free on HBO Max, at least for a month," Bock said.
WB could still have a pretty big year with its slate, including "The Suicide Squad," "Matrix 4," and "Dune."
Read more: Every Warner Bros. movie being released on HBO Max and in theaters simultaneously
But even if WB's films make money in theaters, the studio's returns will be far less than expected.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, some theaters are considering making ticket sales for any WB title $3 to $5, which is a steep reduction considering that the average movie ticket price was $9.16 in 2019, the National Association of Theater Owners reported. In addition, theaters will want to keep 75% to 80% of movie revenue. Usually, chains such as AMC and Regal take in about 50% of ticket sales each year.
Experts said there's also the opportunity for piracy once these films are on the streamer for 30 days, which could hurt revenue. When "Wonder Woman 1984" was released last month, it accounted for about 10% of illegal downloads on its first day of release, a large number that file-sharing blog Torrentfreak referred to as "a potential game-changer."
Will people even want to head back to theaters? What would it take to get people to return? Herd immunity and a vaccine.
As COVID-19 kept many away from theaters, movie lovers didn't just binge Amazon, Hulu, Disney Plus, and other streamers. They also invested in home-entertainment systems.
A Dolby survey conducted in October found that 82% of respondents planned to upgrade their entertainment equipment within the next six months, with 64% paying for streaming upgrades, including an ad-free experience or enhanced picture and sound quality.
If people are pouring more money into home-theater systems and streaming, will they want to return to spending in theaters? Imax CEO Richard Gelfond told Insider the answer is yes.
"People are just tired of sitting in their homes on their couches watching streaming," he said, adding that there's a reason the movie business has existed for over 100 years.
"People can eat in their houses and they go to restaurants," Gelfond said. "People can watch sports in their houses and they go to sporting events. I just don't understand the narrative that moviegoing has changed."
Still, Bock said that if families have upgraded their movie-watching experience at home, they may not want to risk heading out to theaters.
"For the average consumer, $15 buys an entire month of HBO Max or Netflix or Disney Plus," he added. "For one night of going to the theaters, it's just not worth it anymore."
Only 24% of American adults said they felt comfortable going to a movie theater right now, a recent Morning Consult poll found.
But to get theaters open at a larger capacity again, you need 75% to 80% of people, Dr. Anthony Fauci has said, to take vaccines and eventually reach herd immunity, which could take until the end of this year.
We'll see another $1 billion movie, but expect the future of the box office to depend largely on overseas
One glimmer of hope comes when you look at international markets.
As of August, China's box office had more or less returned to normal. Japan broke records thanks to an adaptation of the popular manga "Demon Slayer."
"'The Eight Hundred' is the No. 1 film of 2020. That has never happened before," Bock said of the Chinese historical war drama. "Get used to that happening a lot more."
"I can't see domestic ever reaching the heights that it did again, especially if all the studios are all in on streaming, like they seem to be," Bock said. He predicted that China would be the box-office leader after the pandemic. It overtook the North American box office last year.
Gelfond is particularly optimistic about the box office's eventual return to normality. Two-thirds of the company's revenue is from outside North America, and he's watched China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan deliver record results since reopening.
"People talk about 'Is the business changed forever?' 'Will the US ever come back?' I think that's just a false narrative, unless human nature is different in the US than it is in the rest of the world," Gelfond told Insider. "I think movies will be back in the same way they were around before the pandemic came."
What kind of movie will it take to cross $1 billion again? 'Avatar 2,' a live-action 'Spider-Verse,' or another massive event movie.
The first movie to cross $1 billion again has to be a massive four-quadrant film, meaning it has broad appeal, to all genders, both above and under the age of 25.
Universal's "Fast and Furious 9" and MGM's next Bond movie seem like slam dunks. The former has a fan-favorite character seemingly returning from the dead, while the latter is poised to be Daniel Craig's final time as 007.
Maybe it's a giant crossover movie like "Avengers: Endgame" or an anticipated sequel such as "Frozen II." Maybe it pushes the boundaries of technology like "Avatar." Perhaps it checks multiple boxes.
"The only way I could imagine now a film that actually hits a billion would be something like 'Avatar 2,' because you have a master tactician like James Cameron at the helm possibly pushing how great the 3D is or pushing new barriers like he did with the first one," Bock said, hinting at a groundbreaking underwater element expected in the 2022 sequel.
Cameron has been promising "Avatar 2" (and a third, fourth, and fifth film) since 2009. Yes, the director has been the box-office king with two of the highest-grossing films of all time in "Titanic" and "Avatar." But are people really going to still turn out for this sequel more than a decade later even if the technological advancements Cameron makes live up to his promise that you'll "s--- yourself with your mouth wide open"?
Bock thinks so, citing Cameron's previous efforts on "Aliens" and "Terminator 2."
Who else has the potential to break box-office records once again?
Disney is the most logical answer, with its impressive lineup of a dozen anticipated Marvel projects and "Star Wars" films. The studio, which also has "Avatar" after its Fox acquisition, plans to release five Marvel movies in 2022, including sequels to two billion-dollar movies.
Read more: Disney has 12 more Marvel superhero movies in the works. Here they all are.
"Maybe we see a billion-dollar number when the next iteration of either 'Captain Marvel' or 'Black Panther 2' comes out. That was going to be a billion-dollar movie anyway," Bock said of the franchise once led by Chadwick Boseman, who died last year at age 43.
"It's going to take an event-level film that only Disney can produce," Bock said.
A Spider-Man movie with previous cast members from former "Spider-Man" franchises may do the trick as well. According to reports, Sony, alongside Marvel Studios, is bringing back Jamie Foxx, Alfred Molina, and more into its next "Spider-Man" flick, starring Tom Holland, to create a live-action Spider-Verse.
Nothing may scream must-see event more than a "Spider-Man" movie that could star three Spideys played by Holland, Andrew Garfield, and Tobey Maguire, with villains from multiple franchises.
If studios really need a box-office rebound, which they do, maybe it means we could finally see the ultimate crossover film in a "Justice League vs. Avengers" or another DC vs. Marvel kind of film.
"When we talk about Marvel-DC crossover, when Warner Bros. and Disney plan to get together and say, 'We are going to make this film,' yes, you're talking about a billion dollars there, because of what the buildup will mean to get to that point," Bock said.
This story is part of Insider's State of Hollywood digital series, which details how the $100 billion entertainment industry shifted in 2020. Click here to read more.