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Our predictions for who will win big at the 2023 Oscars and who should actually win

Jason Guerrasio   

Our predictions for who will win big at the 2023 Oscars — and who should actually win
Michelle Yeoh in "Everything Everywhere All at Once."A24
  • "Everything Everywhere All at Once" is expected to be the big winner Sunday, taking Oscars in various categories.
  • But we also think Austin Butler, "The Banshees of Inisherin," and the "RRR" song "Naatu Naatu" will also win.

Best picture

Best picture
"Everything Everywhere All at Once."      A24

The nominees:

"All Quiet on the Western Front"
"Avatar: The Way of Water"
"The Banshees of Inisherin"
"Elvis"
"Everything Everywhere All at Once"
"The Fabelmans"
"Tár"
"Top Gun: Maverick"
"Triangle of Sadness"
"Women Talking"

Who will win: "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

If you haven't been staying up on award season, here's a recap: "Everything Everywhere All at Once" has been owning it. The wildly entertaining A24 movie has won practically every major award leading up to the Oscars and it's almost certain to take home the best picture Oscar.

Who should win: There will be no surprises. It's "EEAAO" all the way!

Who could surprise us: No one. Here's some context on how almost-certain this win is: "Everything" swept the guild awards — Directors Guild, Producers Guild, Writers Guild and Screen Actors Guild — only four other films have done that. They are "Argo," "No Country for Old Men," "Slumdog Millionaire," and "American Beauty." Those all went on to win best picture.

Best director

Best director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert on the set of "Everything Everywhere All at Once."      A24

The nominees:

Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Steven Spielberg, "The Fabelmans"
Todd Field, "Tár"
Ruben Östlund, "Triangle of Sadness"

Who will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

The Daniels are the front runners in the category. Historically the best director and best picture Oscars link up. But don't be shocked if that's not the case this year. It's definitely a two-horse race.

Who should win: Steven Spielberg, "The Fabelmans"

Spielberg could take home his third best director Oscar on Sunday. The Academy worships him. The movie — which delves deep into his childhood and family dynamic — has also been touted as Spielberg's first time telling a very personal story, which could sway enough votes his way.

Who could surprise us: None of the other nominees will pull off an upset.

Best actress

Best actress
Michelle Yeoh in "Everything Everywhere All at Once."      A24

The nominees:

Cate Blanchett, "Tár"
Ana de Armas, "Blonde"
Andrea Riseborough, "To Leslie"
Michelle Williams, "The Fabelmans"
Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Who will win: Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

This is another one that's pretty much locked. A fantastic performance by a beloved actor.

Who should win: It's hard not to give it to Yeoh.

The Oscars are about rewarding amazing work, but it's also used to give flowers to amazing careers, so there is some of that with Yeoh getting the Oscar. Her filmography is legendary, so even those who aren't fans of the movie don't want to see her leave the evening empty-handed.

Who could surprise us: No surprises here.

Best actor

Best actor
Austin Butler in "Elvis."      Warner Bros.

The nominees:

Austin Butler, "Elvis"
Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"
Paul Mescal, "Aftersun"
Bill Nighy, "Living"

Who will win: Austin Butler, "Elvis"

Butler was so dedicated to playing Elvis Presley that he faced health issues, injured his vocal cords, and is still talking like the King. It's that dedication that made us love the movie and why he will win the Oscar.

Who should win: Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"

But Hollywood also loves a comeback story, and in 2022, it was the return of Brendan Fraser that had people flock back to the movies. We feel Fraser's performance is one of the best from last year and we would be ecstatic if he got on that stage to get the prize.

Who could surprise us: Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

It would be a hell of an upset, but Farrell's career has been nothing but proving people wrong. Why should that change at the Academy Awards?

Best supporting actress

Best supporting actress
Jamie Lee Curtis in "Everything Everywhere All at Once."      A24

The nominees:

Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
Hong Chau, "The Whale"
Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Stephanie Hsu, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Who will win: Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

This is the most up-for-grabs Oscar of the night out of the major categories. We think when the votes are all counted, it will be Curtis who wins out. The hype surrounding "Everything," as well as her win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, are indicators of what will come.

Who should win: Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"

Don't get us wrong, Curtis is fully deserving of the award, but we would love to see Bassett get the prize. She missed out on the win for her nominated performance as Tina Turner in 1993's "What's Love Got to Do With It." A win would also make her the first actor from a Marvel movie to take home an Oscar.

Who could surprise us: Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

Condon is now a star thanks to "Inisherin." That's likely as far as she'll get. It would certainly be a shock to see her jump over two legends to get the Oscar.

Best supporting actor

Best supporting actor
Ke Huy Quan in "Everything Everywhere All at Once."      A24

The nominees:

Brendan Gleeson, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Brian Tyree Henry, "Causeway"
Judd Hirsch, "The Fabelmans"
Barry Keoghan, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

Who will win: Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

From Short Round to Oscar winner, what a ride Quan's career has been. It honestly would be a major shock if he doesn't get the Oscar.

Who should win: Ke Huy Quan all the way!

Who could surprise us: No one.

Best animated feature

Best animated feature
"Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio."      Netflix

The nominees:

"Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"
"Marcel the Shell With Shoes On"
"Puss in Boots: The Last Wish"
"The Sea Beast"
"Turning Red"

Who will win: "Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"

The Academy has always had a soft spot for Guillermo del Toro, and it's hard not to when he's making masterful work like this. The win would mark a first for Netflix in this category.

Who should win: Can't go wrong with del Toro.

Who could surprise us: "Marcel the Shell With Shoes On"

This cute A24 release has its loyal fans. The question is, are there enough to pull off an upset win?

Best original screenplay

Best original screenplay
Brendan Gleeson and Colin Farrell (window) in "The Banshees of Inisherin."      Searchlight Pictures

The nominees:

Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, "The Fabelmans"
Todd Field, "Tár"
Ruben Östlund, "Triangle of Sadness"

Who will win: Martin McDonagh, "The Banshees of Inisherin"

The dark comedic work here by McDonagh is worthy of the prize. Though it might not be the best original screenplay.

Who should win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"

The best is, you guessed it, "Everything." If it were up to us we would give it to the Daniels. Their amazing multiverse story mixed with themes of immigration and family is a special script.

Who could surprise us: Todd Field, "Tár"

Field once more proved with "Tár" that he is one of the most gifted storytellers out there right now. He's certainly worthy of the prize.

Best adapted screenplay

Best adapted screenplay
Sarah Polley's "Women Talking."      MGM

The nominees:

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Rian Johnson, "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"
Kazuo Ishiguro, "Living"
Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie, "Top Gun: Maverick"
Sarah Polley, "Women Talking"

Who will win: Sarah Polley, "Women Talking"

This marks Polley's second nomination for screenwriting. She has moved impressively from acting to filmmaking in the past decade, and this win will prove she's a major force in the business.

Who should win: Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie, "Top Gun: Maverick"

It's extremely hard to make a sequel better than the original, and we're not even talking about the sequel to a beloved classic released decades ago. We might not hear "Top Gun: Maverick" called a lot on Sunday, but this would be the category where the movie is deserving of a prize because its global success began with just words on a page.

Who could surprise us: Rian Johnson, "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery"

Seeing Johnson win an Oscar would be a highlight of our night. How can you not root for the "Knives Out" franchise?

Best cinematography

Best cinematography
"All Quiet on the Western Front."      Netflix

The nominees:

James Friend, "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Darius Khondji, "Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths"
Mandy Walker, "Elvis"
Roger Deakins, "Empire of Light"
Florian Hoffmeister, "Tár"

Who will win: James Friend, "All Quiet on the Western Front"

War movies have historically done well at the Oscars and Netflix's take on this beloved novel will certainly lead to a win. Friend's camerawork here is breathtaking and brutal all at the same time.

Who should win: Mandy Walker, "Elvis"

It would be great to see Walker's talents bringing Baz Luhrmann's hyper-realistic portrayal of Presley to the screen awarded on Sunday.

Who could surprise us: This one's between "All Quiet" and "Elvis."

Best original song

Best original song
"RRR."      Variance Films

The nominees:

"Applause" — Diane Warren ("Tell It Like a Woman")
"Hold My Hand" — Lady Gaga and BloodPop ("Top Gun: Maverick")
"Lift Me Up" — Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Goransson; Lyric by Tems and Ryan Coogler ("Black Panther: Wakanda Forever")
"Naatu Naatu" — Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose ("RRR")
"This Is a Life" — Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; Lyric by Ryan Lott and David Byrne ("Everything Everywhere All at Once")

Who will win: "Naatu Naatu" — Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyrics by Chandrabose ("RRR")

One of the highlights of movie watching for us last year was seeing "Naatu Naatu" performed in "RRR." The song and the dance number is what should be championed by this category. It proves the prize shouldn't always go to a chart-topping song from a movie.

Who should win: "Naatu Naatu"

Who could surprise us: "Lift Me Up" — Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Goransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler ("Black Panther: Wakanda Forever")

Now, if the Academy voters are gong to play it safe, they will likely go with this song. It's great and delivers an emotionally touching end to "Wakanda Forever." (But it's no "Naatu Naatu.")

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