Hollywood holds its breath as blockbuster hopefuls like 'No Time to Die' and 'Dune' test the limits of movie-theater recovery

• Multiple big movie releases are packed into October, from "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" to "Dune."
• The month will test whether the US theatrical market can sustain so many tentpole films.
• Some Hollywood releases will also open in China after "Shang-Chi" was shut out, but the real test will come later.

After multiple delays, some of Hollywood's biggest movies of the year will finally see the light of day in October.

But their triumph isn't guaranteed in a theatrical market damaged by the pandemic, even after the success of Marvel's "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings," which has grossed nearly $200 million domestically and become the highest-grossing movie this year in the US since debuting on September 3.

Hollywood is about to find out whether domestic movie theaters can sustain multiple tentpole releases in a row. It will also find out if audiences in China, which passed the US last year as the world's biggest cinema market, are craving foreign blockbusters at a pivotal moment for Hollywood and China's relationship.

Some of October's most high-profile releases include:

• Sony's "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" - in US theaters October 1
• MGM's "No Time to Die" - in US theaters October 8/in China October 29
• Universal's "Halloween Kills" - in US theaters and on Peacock October 15
• Warner Bros.' "Dune" - in US/China theaters and on HBO Max October 22

The month will also see the release of The "Sopranos" prequel "The Many Saints of Newark" in theaters and on Max this weekend and Ridley Scott's "The Last Duel" on October 15.

Needless to say, it will be a big month for movies - maybe. It all depends on whether audience turnout prevails over lingering concerns about the coronavirus and day-and-date streaming strategies.

Theaters are inching toward recovery

"Shang-Chi" proved there is still an appetite for going to movie theaters. But the movie has faced little competition since opening earlier this month. Even some of the summer's best performing films at the domestic box office - from "A Quiet Place Part II" to "F9" to "Black Widow" - were spread out.

Theater owners believe the secret to success is twofold: actually releasing films, and then making them exclusive to theaters.

"Studios' choices are: get a decent return on your movies now, take them straight to streaming and sacrifice all of the box office, or keep delaying until the industry dies," the National Association of Theater Owners (NATO) chief John Fithian told Insider in a recent interview.

Fithian predicted that "Shang-Chi" would have stronger legs at the box office than "Black Widow," which Disney released simultaneously to theaters and Disney+. The numbers suggest he was right.

But what happens in October will tell Hollywood whether all of those aforementioned films - even those exclusive to theaters like "Let There Be Carnage" and "No Time to Die" - can thrive when packed into one month, in a market where even some of the most successful big-budget tentpoles have failed to reach pre-pandemic levels of success.

If they are successful, Hollywood may feel more confident about releasing its remaining scheduled films this year. If not, movie-studio execs may go back to the drawing board and either consider delaying films again, such as Paramount did with "Top Gun: Maverick," or releasing them simultaneously to streaming and theaters.

Here's how those movies' predecessors fared at the box office:

• "Spectre" (2015) - $880 million globally/$200 million domestically/$70 million opening weekend
• "Venom" (2018) - $856 million globally/$215 million domestically/$80 million opening weekend
• "Halloween" (2018) - $255 million globally/$159 million domestically/$76 million opening weekend

While movie studios have tempered their expectations during the pandemic, those numbers still put a lot of pressure on these movies to perform at a respectable level - especially "No Time to Die," with its massive $250 million budget. Foreign markets can pick up the slack, as they did before the pandemic, but the biggest foreign market may not be as reliable for Hollywood as it once was.

China is a big question mark

Before the pandemic, Hollywood relied on China - then the No. 2 theatrical market - to boost its blockbusters on the global scale. But the comeback story in the region has been more about China's own film industry.

So far this year, only two Hollywood releases are currently in the top 10 at China's box office: "F9" and "Godzilla vs. Kong." Since the pandemic, which China's theater industry has recovered from more quickly than in the US, local Chinese films have performed exceptionally well, at levels Hollywood film studios can only dream of right now.

And "No Time to Die" and "Dune" could leave Hollywood still holding its breath.

The films could face issues at the China box office, according to Stanley Rosen, a political science professor at the University of Southern California who specializes in Chinese politics and cinema.

"No Time to Die" will get released in North America and other international markets before China (and the James Bond franchise isn't a staple in the region; "Spectre" earned $83 million there). And "Dune" will stream simultaneously on HBO Max. Both situations invite piracy, which Rosen said is a "big issue in China."

But he said the real test for Hollywood in the region is Marvel.

China has shut out "Black Widow" and "Shang-Chi," depriving Hollywood of a chance to see if the Marvel brand, which traditionally performs well in the region, can still do so. ("Avengers: Endgame" is China's highest-grossing foreign release ever.)

The next Marvel movie, "Eternals," also faces release challenges due to past comments made by director Chloé Zhao, who was born in China, and said "there are lies everywhere" in the country in a 2013 interview. Rosen is optimistic about the movie's chances, though, even given the Zhao controversy.

"China wants to be the largest film market in the world and COVID did that for them," he said. "But you have to keep some Hollywood product because people want them."