- The 2022 box office is going to be down substantially from pre-pandemic years.
- Hollywood and movie theaters can learn a lot from hits like "Top Gun: Maverick" and others.
2022 was a difficult year for the movie business.
While there were highs — like the hit "Top Gun: Maverick" and indie darling "Everything Everywhere All at Once" — there were also lows that foreshadow the struggles that are likely to continue in 2023.
Comscore projects that the US box office will end the year with just over $7 billion, a far cry from the $11 billion of 2019 and other pre-pandemic years.
Maybe that's just the status quo now. Even some of Hollywood's top personalities, such as Disney CEO Bob Iger, don't think moviegoing can ever return to pre-pandemic levels.
But theater owners argue that the problem is the lack of movies being released — something that will likely be an issue through next year. Theaters can't survive on just a big hit every few months.
Still, looking at what has been released can teach Hollywood some lessons for the coming year and beyond.
Give movies more room to breathe in theaters
After two years of experimenting with streaming releases, Hollywood studios embraced theaters again in 2022 — but they were also quick to give up on them.
In what felt like mere moments after they landed on the big screen, movies like "She Said" and "The Fabelmans" were shoved onto video-on-demand platforms.
One can easily argue that these movies didn't perform well enough in theaters to justify an extended release, a pattern among original adult dramas these days. "She Said" only made $2 million in its opening weekend.
But one could also say that some movies aren't given the chance to build proper word of mouth. Steven Spielberg's "The Fabelmans," which has made a paltry $9 million, never even got a wide release.
The impact of shorter theatrical windows, or none at all, can be seen on Disney animated films, as well. Both "Lightyear" and "Strange World" flopped at the box office, and then showed up on Disney+ a month later.
In 2020 and 2021, Disney had released Pixar movies straight to Disney+, so maybe families have been trained to wait to watch Disney animated films at home. A recalibration of its strategy — keeping movies in theaters longer — could be needed to make moviegoing more appealing.
Rein in the production budgets
If audiences are being more selective about the movies they spend their money on in theaters, then even big-budget blockbusters could face an uphill battle. That was the case with "Black Adam" and, to a far lesser extent, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," both of which cost around $200 million to make.
The former was a dud, not even making $400 million worldwide. The latter has grossed $800 million globally, but is far from the massive hit the first "Black Panther" was.
These kinds of tentpole movies are still the movie industry's bread and butter, and they're the most consistent in getting butts in seats, especially after the pandemic.
But there have been plenty of movies this year that proved that sometimes less is more.
"Everything Everywhere All at Once" cost $25 million to make and earned over $100 million worldwide, becoming indie studio A24's biggest hit ever. The horror movie "Smile," with only a $17 million budget, grossed over $200 million worldwide.
The studio behind "Smile," Paramount, is already taking a cue from the movie's success, nabbing former DC movie boss Walter Hamada to develop low-budget horror movies.
Appeal to more than just regular moviegoers
Longterm, Hollywood should be thinking more about how to attract people who don't go to the movies a lot.
We saw it this year with the low-budget "Dog," which performed well in middle America. It starred Channing Tatum as an Army Ranger tasked with getting a canine companion to a fallen soldier's funeral. It cost just $15 million to make and earned $85 million globally, $62 million of which was in the US.
Anecdotally, I know people who hadn't been to a theater in years — in one case, decades — who saw "Top Gun: Maverick" more than once in a cinema.
Early in the pandemic, I heard from studio execs and theater owners that "moviegoers" were still excited to see movies in theaters, and that's who was essential to keep as customers.
Yes, it's important to have loyal customers (which is why AMC Theatres is launching a credit card). But these movies show that the film industry thrives when even inconsistent customers are tempted to see something on the big screen.