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Experts say 'Tenet's' strong start at the box office should give Warner Bros. confidence to release 'Wonder Woman 1984' and 'Dune' to theaters this year

Sep 1, 2020, 00:50 IST
Business Insider
John David Washington and Robert Pattinson in "Tenet."Warner Bros.
  • Christopher Nolan's "Tenet" grossed $53 million internationally over the weekend.
  • It hits theaters in the US this weekend. Analysts say that Nolan's name recognition and the promise of a big-screen blockbuster could lure audiences back to theaters this weekend, but the long-term box office is less clear.
  • Box Office Pro projected "Tenet" to earn between $15 million and $35 million in the US this weekend.
  • Experts told Business Insider that the movie's global success could give Warner Bros. the confidence to release "Wonder Woman 1984" and "Dune," which are still on the release calendar for this year.
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All eyes are on "Tenet."

Christopher Nolan's latest hits theaters in the US this weekend after several coronavirus-related delays and an international rollout last week that is giving experts hope for movie theaters.

The movie's $53 million haul at the international box office over the weekend is a "win for the theatrical experience and the drawing power of a high-profile, big ticket blockbuster," Paul Dergarabedian, the Comscore senior media analyst, told Business Insider. Shawn Robbins, the Box Office Pro chief analyst, said that the numbers "provide a major boost of optimism" for the theatrical industry.

But the major test will be in the US, where coronavirus cases continue to rise and major theatrical markets like New York and Los Angeles remain closed.

Adding to the potential complications, audiences remain wary of returning to traditional theaters. A recent Morning Consult survey of 2,200 US adults found that just 17% would be comfortable returning to theaters right now. The top venues for recent releases like "Unhinged" and "The New Mutants," have been drive-in theaters.

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Warner Bros. is betting on Nolan's name recognition and the promise of a big-screen spectacle to lure audiences back to theaters for the $200 million blockbuster. Jeff Bock, the Exhibitor Relations senior media analyst, said that it could work, but the implications won't be immediately felt.

"There may be a huge rush to theaters opening weekend and a bigger drop-off than normal over the next three to four weeks," Bock said.

"Let's get through Labor Day first," he added, "and a couple weeks after to understand the scope of everything."

On Friday, Box Office Pro projected an opening weekend range in the US for "Tenet" of between $15 million and $35 million.

Robbins noted that "Tenet" and other movies should be judged by their entire runs and not only their opening weekends, saying that they "will play in theaters longer than we're used to seeing."

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"Tenet's" international success could be good news for Warner Bros.' theatrical calendar for the rest of the year, Robbins added. "Wonder Woman 1984" is slated for October after being pushed back from June and August. "Dune" is still set for a December release.

Warner Bros. did not return a request for comment to this story.

"We can never say never to more shifting release plans during the pandemic era, but the global performance of 'Tenet' so far should provide even more confidence for Warner Bros. to keep its remaining tentpole films on the slate for 2020," Robbins said.

Similarly, Dergarabedian said that the "positive momentum created by 'Tenet' should pave the way for the other films on Warner Bros.' slate to have their shot at worldwide big screen glory."

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