'Eternals' is the worst-reviewed movie in the MCU, but box-office experts are still projecting a solid debut
- "Eternals" has a 50% Rotten Tomatoes critic score, the worst of any MCU movie.
- Audience engagement on social media was lagging behind other MCU releases this week.
"Eternals," which hit theaters on Friday, has a "rotten" score of 50% on Rotten Tomatoes, the worst of any Marvel Cinematic Universe movie.
Negative reviews can sometimes impact a movie's box-office performance. But the MCU, the biggest movie franchise of all time, is a strong enough brand that it may not matter.
"The Marvel name is box-office insurance," said Paul Dergarabedian, the Comscore senior media analyst.
That doesn't mean he's expecting "Eternals" to break any records, though.
"'Black Widow' and 'Shang-Chi' set the bar high," Dergarabedian said. "We should temper our expectations. It might be more about the long term. It might take more time to develop its box office. Audience sentiment will be important."
"Black Widow," which debuted simultaneously in theaters and on Disney+ for an additional fee, debuted with $80 million domestically in July. "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings," which had an exclusive theatrical run, premiered with $75 million in September and $94 million over the four-day Labor Day weekend. It ultimately passed "Black Widow" as the biggest movie at the domestic box office this year.
"Eternals" doesn't seem to be driving as much online conversation as its Marvel counterparts.
Three days out from its release, the movie was narrowly lagging behind "Black Widow" and moreso "Shang-Chi" in engagement at the same point ahead of those movies' releases, according to audience engagement data from the analytics company Diesel Labs.
The company pulls the data from social and video platforms Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Instagram, which reflects posts, comments, and more to gauge the level of interest in a piece of content.
The Box Office Pro chief analyst Shawn Robbins wrote on Thursday that negative reviews have "dented social traction and pre-sales momentum." He's projecting a domestic debut of $78 million, but noted it could be as low as $68 million, or even as high as $88 million.
The wide range reflects the number of factors that are playing in the movie's favor, as well as against it.
"The film has a number of advantages in its favor - not the least of which is the Marvel Cinematic Universe's unprecedented level of goodwill among a wide variety of audiences from die hard fans to casual viewers," Robbins wrote.
But, he added that the low Rotten Tomatoes score is an "unusual development for a Marvel Studios film throwing a possible wrench into box office modeling."
The movie did earn $9.5 million in Thursday previews, the third best of the year behind "Black Widow" and "Venom: Let There Be Carnage."
No MCU movie has opened below $70 million since 2015's "Ant-Man." Dergarabedian thinks that a $70 million debut, or more, is possible. But he considers any movie that opens above $50 million in the current theatrical environment, which is still recovering from the pandemic, as "a win."