Box-office hits like 'Top Gun' and 'Avatar' could make waves at the next Oscars as the show fights for viewership
- "Top Gun: Maverick," "Avatar: The Way of Water," and more box-office hits are in Oscar contention.
- Oscar viewership, meanwhile, has dwindled in recent years, reaching an all-time low in 2021.
It's been nearly two decades since the biggest movie of the year has also won the film industry's most coveted prize: the Academy Award for best picture.
"The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" won best picture at the 2004 Oscars, which recognized the movies of the previous year. It was the highest-grossing movie of 2003, bringing in nearly $1.15 billion worldwide and $378 million in the US.
Now, with the Oscars fighting for viewership, box-office hits like "Top Gun: Maverick" — this year's biggest movie so far — and "Avatar: The Way of Water" — which is chasing that title — may be in contention for the top prize at the 2023 ceremony.
This year's telecast in March, honoring 2021's films, was watched by 16 million people — down 63% from the 43.5 million viewers who watched "Return of the King" win.
While it beat 2021's all-time low, the 2022 ceremony still had the second-worst ratings in Oscars history. The declining viewership has, in recent years, prompted the organization behind the Oscars, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, to try to inject the show with changes.
In 2018, the Academy announced an Oscar celebrating "popular" films, but quickly scrapped the idea after heavy criticism. Mark Harris, author of film books such as "Pictures at a Revolution, called it a "pandering, desperation-based" decision.
Instead, many argued that the Oscars should just honor broad-appeal movies in the best-picture category. The same year it was going to introduce the "popular" Oscar, the Academy nominated "Black Panther," the biggest movie at the US box office of 2018, for best picture. The following year, it nominated "Joker," which grossed over $1 billion worldwide.
But the last couple of Oscars failed to nominate blockbuster hits.
"Maverick's" US box-office gross of $718 million is nearly as much as the total worldwide box office of all the best-picture nominees from the last two years combined (around $726 million). The caveats being that those movies were released in a weaker, pandemic-riddled market, and some were also on streaming — but it's still an eye-popping stat.
'Maverick,' 'The Way of Water,' and more hits could dominate the Oscars
There are plenty of factors contributing to the Oscars' lack of viewership, particularly a shift in TV-viewing patterns, and it's unclear if nominating more "popular" movies would increase ratings.
Nevertheless, the next ceremony seems to be the best opportunity in years to put that to the test.
I'm not the first to notice it. A recent episode of Vanity Fair's awards podcast "Little Gold Men" was titled "Just how many blockbuster best picture nominees will we get." A Hollywood Reporter story last month declared "Box office draws may dominate the Oscars."
The aforementioned "Top Gun: Maverick" is a formidable player in this year's awards race, as is "Avatar: The Way of Water."
Vulture and The Hollywood Reporter have both films listed in their best-picture predictions, which are updated regularly. They've also been recognized by precursors like the Golden Globes and National Board of Review Awards, which don't necessarily predict the Oscars but do build momentum in the race.
Other populist picks are also in heavy contention. "Everything Everywhere All at Once," the year's indie darling, is a strong favorite. The movie, which was made for $25 million, grossed $103 million worldwide, making it indie studio A24's biggest film ever.
And then there are movies like "Elvis," which made nearly $300 million globally, and "Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery," which could have been a bonafide hit if it had been given a more robust rollout. Both have popped up in early predictions for best-picture consideration.
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" isn't as much a factor in the best-picture race as the first movie, based on early consensus from awards pundits. But star Angela Bassett is a strong contender in the supporting-actress category, according to THR's awards editor Scott Feinberg and others.
Needless to say, the the 2023 Oscars could look the most "populist" they have in some time — and the Academy didn't even have to introduce a "popular" Oscar to do it.