'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' arrives when movie theaters need it most, after a months-long drought of blockbusters

• "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" opened in theaters Thursday night.
• The movie is expected to be a box-office win for theaters after a lack of blockbuster releases.

"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," the sequel to 2018's "Black Panther," debuted in theaters Thursday night.

Theater owners are likely breathing a sigh of relief.

The past few months have been a slog for Hollywood studios and the theatrical industry alike. The last movie to open with a $100 million-plus first weekend at the US box office was Marvel's "Thor: Love and Thunder" in July.

Reasons for optimism have been few and far between since then.

The horror movie "Smile" was an unexpected bright spot, recently crossing the $100 million mark in the US off of a $17 million budget. Other small-budgeted horror movies, like "Barbarian," showed the genre is still of high interest for moviegoers.

Movies like "Bullet Train" and "The Woman King" showed that there's still at least some interest in non-franchise, star-driven action movies — but they weren't blockbusters by any means.

Other original films, like the romantic comedy "Bros" and the thriller "Don't Worry Darling," flopped.

Studios have released fewer movies to theaters this year due to pandemic-related delays and a shift to streaming. John Fithian, the head of the National Association of Theatre Owners, told Insider in August that he didn't expect movie supply to be back to pre-pandemic levels for another 12 to 18 months, which would bring us to late 2023 at the earliest.

Franchise tentpoles, particularly of the superhero variety, have been the lifeblood of the theatrical industry for some time, and that's been even more the case during the pandemic.

The only one to open between "Love and "Thunder" and "Wakanda Forever" was DC's "Black Adam." While it opened higher than expectations with $67 million in the US, it hasn't sustained enough momentum to be a hit.

It's grossed $326 million worldwide and likely needs at least $600 million to break even given its nearly $200 million production budget and millions more in marketing expenses. And with "Wakanda Forever" here, "Black Adam" will probably quickly fizzle at the box office.

That leaves "Wakanda Forever" to pick up the slack and give theaters a much-needed win after a drought of blockbusters.

The first "Black Panther" opened with $202 million in the US and some projections put the sequel in that range. Shawn Robbins, the Box Office Pro chief analyst, projects that the movie could debut with as much as $205 million, which would be the biggest November opening ever. To put that in perspective, that's more than "Black Adam" earned in three weekends.

"Wakanda Forever" opened on Thursday night with $28 million, more than the first movie's opening Thursday of $25 million. Robbins wrote that pre-sale tickets for Friday were outpacing Thursday pre-sales, so the weekend is shaping up nicely.

But after "Wakanda Forever," it's back to a drought. The movie will have little competition until "Avatar: The Way of Water" opens in late December.