Election 2014: An Absolute Analysis

The Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Narendra Modi, created history in the just-concluded elections by becoming the first party since 1984 (the year Indira Gandhi was assassinated) to win majority on its own. The exit polls had predicted a Modi tsunami but it turned out to be a tsuNaMo.

The only chunk in the armour for the BJP was the defeat of Arun Jaitley from Amritsar. Jaitley was widely speculated to get a major portfolio in the next government (probably the finance ministry). However, he might find a Cabinet berth despite losing the election as Rajnath Singh has said that “the party would fully utilise his abilities.”

The Congress’ entire India tally was reduced to a meagre 44, which is way below the BJP’s tally of 71 from UP alone. The drubbing was so massive that the ruling party could not even manage to get 55 seats (10% of the total number of Lok Sabha seats) required to nominate the leader of opposition.

The decimated Congress failed to open its account in as many as nine states – Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Goa. On the other hand, the BJP, riding on the Modi wave, conquered all the seats in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Goa.

With such a strong mandate in his favour, now Modi needs to live up to the expectations of the people and usher in all round development and good governance. Modi showed his humble side after his victory. Addressing his supporters in Vadodara, Modi spoke about taking everyone along and gave the mantra of “sabka sath, sabka vikaas.”

The most positive outcome of the result has been the fact that the new government will not be constrained by or subjected to blackmailing by the coalition partners. The outgoing Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, had often referred to coalition compulsions and admitted that he had to make some compromises in the name of coalition dharma.

Any analysis of the election results would remain incomplete without a special mention of Uttar Pradesh, where people rejected caste-based politics, reducing Mayawati’s BSP to nought. It shows that voters have become aspirational and can no longer be swayed by empty caste rhetoric and symbolism. However, it would be premature to write her off completely as her party, though could not win any seat, managed to get a vote share of 19.6%.

In Bihar too, the Modi wave shattered Lalu’s dream of making a comeback and he could not increase his party’s 2009 tally of just four seats. Nitish Kumar’s JD (U) also faced a rout and could win just two seats. Following this, he put in his papers on ‘moral grounds’. However, it seems more of a face-saving exercise as there were reports of growing discontent within his party. Now, JD (U) President Sharad Yadav has extended a lifeline to Lalu by signalling an alliance between the arch rivals.

The results also show Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi’s growing disconnect with the masses over the years. When scams after scams propped up during UPA II, he seemed oblivious to it. Neither he nor outgoing PM Manmohan Singh ever took any step to crack down on graft. Gandhi never talked to the media on uncomfortable issues and was seen as a leader who refused to own up responsibility.

The BJP had undergone a transition within the party before the polls as it required a new face after the debacle under LK Advani. The Congress, too, after successive debacles under Rahul Gandhi, needs to look for a new face with fresh ideas.