Either The New York City Comptroller's Race Is Tied, Or Eliot Spitzer Has An Enormous Lead

Over the last week of polling in the New York City comptroller's race, one thing has become clear - one polling firm is going to have to answer for a lot after next Tuesday's Democratic primary.

The latest poll came Wednesday, from Quinnipiac University. It shows upstart challenger Scott Stringer slightly on top of former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, 47-45. This comes a week after a Quinnipiac poll that showed the race in a dead-heat tie.

But the new Quinnipiac survey differs wildly from one released last week. New York Times/Siena College, the other partnership regularly tracking the race, released a poll showing Spitzer with a 15-point lead on Stringer.

Here are some of the key similarities and differences between the latest Quinnipiac and Siena polls:

• The Quinnipiac poll shows virtually no gender gap, with both men and women slightly backing Stringer. That's a big difference from the Siena poll, in which Spitzer had a 23-point advantage among women.

• In the Siena poll, Spitzer also leads Stringer by 4 points among men.
• Both polls show significant gender gaps. In Siena, Spitzer leads Stringer 67-17 among black voters. In Quinnipiac, that margin is slightly thinner at 61-32.
• Among white voters, Stringer holds huge leads in both surveys - 52-35 in Siena and 60-36 in Quinnipiac.
• As a side note, on Aug. 14, Quinnipiac released a survey showing Spitzer with a 19-point lead over Stringer.

Some good signs for Stringer in the latest Quinnipiac poll: 81% say they will "definitely" vote for him, and only 9% say they are likely to change their minds. Only 74% say they'll "definitely" vote for Spitzer, while 17% say there's a good chance they could change their minds.

The Stringer campaign seized on the latest good news.

"New Yorkers are looking for a Comptroller with a proven record of honesty and integrity who will fight for the middle class and those struggling to make it," Stringer spokeswoman Audrey Gelman said in a statement. "Scott's plan to cut waste so we can invest in programs that really work is breaking through with New Yorkers."