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EIA Cuts Recoverable California Shale Estimates By 96% Percent

Rob Wile   

EIA Cuts Recoverable California Shale Estimates By 96% Percent

The EIA has cut its original estimate of recoverable shale oil reserves in California's much-hyped Monterey shale play by 96%, the L.A. Times' Louis Sahagun reported late Tuesday.

The agency now says there are just 600 million barrels of recoverable crude - as much as Bolivia. Previously the agency had said there were up to 15.4 billion barrels - or two-thirds of all recoverable shale oil in the U.S.

Sahagun:

The new estimate, expected to be released publicly next month, is a blow to the nation's oil future and to projections that an oil boom would bring as many as 2.8 million new jobs to California and boost tax revenue by $24.6 billion annually.

In December, the Post Carbon Institute published a report calling into question the EIA's initial estimate, noting that the Monterey's geology, while superficially similar, contained unusual characteristics that would make it more difficult to access. In a statement last night the group said, "The oil had always been a statistical fantasy. Left out of all the hoopla was the fact that the EIA's estimate was little more than a back-of-the-envelope calculation."

Since the report was published in California lawmakers have been under tremendous pressure to allow . Staring them in the face was an estimate that the Monterey shale could create up to 3 million jobs. Governor Jerry Brown had previously said fracking the Monterey presented "a fabulous economic opportunity," and last fall signed into law regulations that would allow the practice to continue in the state.

Now all that seems to be derailed.

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