Economists are obsessed with US economic data
Paul Donovan, an economist at UBS, analyzed the interest in different kinds of economic data releases and found that US data dominated the interest of economists.
He determined the amount of interest based on the number of economists that had a forecast for a data release. This is important because markets typically respond to how much an economic data point exceeds or disappoints its consensus estimate. So if more economists forecast the number, the more the market likely cares about the data.
Here's Donovan's explanation:
The benchmark for Donovan was the monthly US nonfarm payrolls, with 96 economists regularly making a call on the number.
After that came 24 different US economic indicators ranging from US GDP to the National Association of Home Builders index. Then came the first international number: Chinese GDP.
Besides Chinese GDP, no other non-US indicator had half as many forecasts as US nonfarm payrolls.
Donovan also noted signs of uneven attention, such as the over-importance of UK data and the tendency for economists to simply use German data as a proxy for all of the Eurozone.
In the end, Donovan said there is a discrepancy between the number of forecasters and the actual underlying economy. "This exercise gives an idea of the relative market importance of high frequency data releases. It says nothing as to the relative economic importance of such data," he wrote.
Despite that limitation, it is an interesting look at what market-watchers are keeping their sights on. Check out the full breakdown below.
