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ECONOMIST: 'Consumers go AWOL in April'

May 13, 2015, 19:28 IST

The April retail sales report was a big disappointment. 

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Sales were flat compared to March, missing expectations for a 0.2% increase, and sales also disappointed when excluding auto and gas sales. 

Following this report, Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, wrote, "Consumers go AWOL in April - a clunker number for sure."

Rupkey added, "Consumers are the driving force behind GDP economy growth. Their absence will be noted by Fed officials when they meet in June. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart already was worried about retail sales before this morning's dour data. Is it just us, or are Fed policymakers the new risk managers for the economy. They seem to see dark clouds out there constantly, and delay normalizing rates longer than any Fed has in history."

Also following the retail sales number, we highlighted comments from a bond trader who said it looks like the US is "perhaps entering another recession."

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Rupkey, in contrast, expects that better days are ahead for the economy this summer, writing, "If patience is a virtue, today is the day to have it. Just wait, the consumer spent less than we thought today, but the economy still looks in good shape coming up on 6 years of expansion in June. Better days are coming this summer, bet on it."

But even for Rupkey, who is one of the most consistently bullish economists on Wall Street, this is a subdued tone. 

And so it seems that any way you slice it, it was a rough morning for the economy.

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