REUTERS/Scott Audette (L), Javier Galeano (R)
In a note to clients on Sunday, David Bianco, chief US equity strategist at Deutsche Bank, said he expects the S&P 500 will stay in a pretty narrow range between now and the US election.
Said another way: get ready for a lot more Closing Bell headlines that say "STOCKS GO NOWHERE: Here's what you need to know."
"We expect the S&P 500 to be range bound between 1925 to 2100 until after the US general election," Bianco writes
"We do not expect the S&P to fall back into correction territory as a double-dip correction already happened and it would likely take clear signs of an impending US recession or a new global shock to cause renewed investor panic.
"While April into May is usually a strong period for S&P 500 performance, we think upside is capped given that 1Q S&P EPS will be down y/y and likely sequentially, Fed speak is likely to be more hawkish especially upon further market gains, Brexit vote risk, and the usual summer softness especially given Presidential campaign headline and geopolitical risks."
The S&P 500 closed at 2,035 on Thursday.
And so while Bianco outlines outside events like a move from the Federal Reserve or an exit from the European Union by the UK as risks investors might be focused on, his view is markets will shrug most anything off until the US political picture is cleared up.
Recently, we've seen volatility in the stock market collapse after a very rocky start to the year as the last nine trading days have seen the S&P 500 stay inside a 1% range, the longest streak in nine months.
Another example of how markets have stopped reacting to outside factors is the reaction following last week's terrorist attacks in Brussels when stocks both in Europe and the US were little changed after the news.
As Raymond James strategist Scott Brown wrote, "Sad to say, but the financial markets may have become desensitized to terrorist attacks. In the past, we might have seen a bigger move in the price of oil or the dollar."
So don't just do something: sit there.
Until November 9.
FRED