Democrats are over-performing in key races - and it could be a nightmare for Trump in 2018

Associated Press/Manuel Balce Ceneta

President Donald Trump, with, from left, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky., Vice President Mike Pence, House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wis., and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., speaks about the passage of the tax bill on the South Lawn at the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Dec. 20, 2017.

• Democratic candidates have over-performed in every single special election since President Donald Trump came into office, and analysts are starting to worry that the GOP could lose the House and Senate in 2018.
• Trump has already struggled to push his agenda through congress, and losing his slim majorities in both houses could stall his already slow-moving agenda.
• A narrow win in deep-red Arizona on Tuesday night highlights how real and close this danger is for Republicans.

Democratic candidates have over-performed in every single special election since President Donald Trump came into office, and it's increasingly looking like Trump's 2018 nightmare of losing both the House and the Senate in midterm elections could come true.

Republicans narrowly squeaked out a win in an Arizona special election on Tuesday night with their candidate winning by 5 points in a state Trump carried by 21 points.

A report at the New York Times found Republicans losing a similar amount of ground in popular support in other key states including Georgia, South Carolina, Alabama, and Pennsylvania - all states that Trump rode to victory.

"Even the reddest of districts in a red state can be in play this year," the Associated Press wrote in an article analyzing Tuesday's slim win for the GOP in Arizona.

Steven Law, who runs American Crossroads, a well-funded outside group supporting Republican Senate campaigns, told the news website Axios it's "not likely but not out of the question" for the GOP lose the Senate in 2018.

"We do have more defensive terrain to hold than when the cycle started," said Law, "and targeted Democratic incumbents have been over-performing in terms of their early fundraising activity."

Republicans hold the Senate by the slimmest majority possible at 51 to 49 seats, and losing even one or two seats could further hamper their ability to enact Trump's, or their own agenda.

The GOP-held Senate already failed to pass health care reform and to strike key compromises. If Democrats took back both houses of Congress, it could halt Trump's already slow-moving agenda.