Ukrainian unit commander predicts drone warfare will be truly unmanned in a matter of months and won't need human pilots

• Ukrainian drones won't need operators in as little as six months, a Ukrainian commander said.
• Artificial intelligence-enabled drones are being rapidly developed, tested, and deployed.

In just a matter of months, Ukraine may no longer need pilots for its drone force, a special drone unit commander said recently.

The expected shift towards autonomous and artificial intelligence-enabled systems would mark an important development in the continued drone arms race between Russia and Ukraine.

In as little as six months, Ukraine's drone force could shift to AI systems, Robert Brovdi, the founder and commander of the "Madyar Birds" special drone unit, said in a conversation with The Economist earlier this month. He said the unmanned aerial vehicles will be "pilotless completely without any operators."

He talked about the ongoing development and testing of hundreds of AI systems, explaining that soldiers will only need to launch the aircraft. From there, the drone "will decide on its own where to go and how to hit the target." Brovdi added that the weapons will be able to tell friends from foes.

It's unclear to which systems Brovdi is referring, although various Ukrainian and Western companies have been working on autonomous capabilities for drones. One Ukrainian company's AI drones have already been used on the battlefield to carry out autonomous strikes on Russian forces. But many of the drones on the battlefield, be they cheap first-person-view drones or higher-end systems, still use human operators.

Brovdi said that the Ukrainian soldiers who have been at the forefront of employing unmanned systems in the war have garnered years of experience and will be able to help train NATO militaries in drone warfare.

Brovdi said that "this will become an element of our practical gratitude for your assistance in our fight for our freedom and for our country and for our families," referencing the ongoing support for Ukraine from its Western partners.

Brovdi's comments highlight the continued development of various drone capabilities amid the war in Ukraine.

Drones have become a defining element of the war, as has the resulting arms race. Both sides in this conflict are using unmanned systems en masse and developing new countermeasures. As FPV drones emerged as a serious threat, extensive electronic warfare was employed to counter them. Tethered drones connected to the operator by fiber optic cables were then used to defeat jamming. Autonomous, AI-driven drones would also be immune.

Drones have drastically changed what the modern battlefield looks like and pushed Western armies such as the US to further prioritize the development of unmanned systems and options for eliminating them in combat.

Discussions about AI in drones and other weapons systems have been ongoing in recent years. Earlier this year, the Pentagon updated its directive on autonomy in weapons systems, a move the deputy secretary of defense, Kathleen Hicks, attributed to "the dramatic advances in technology happening all around us."

Militaries like the US have been thinking bigger when it comes to AI, including autonomous fighter jets, warships, and more.

But with the rise of AI comes a range of concerns about letting autonomous systems make kill decisions. Earlier this year, reports of Israel using AI to locate and target Hamas operatives raised a number of concerns about how to keep the human in the loop.

The AI race in militaries has also led to international disputes about whether to impose regulations on how to develop and use AI weapons. Some major players, such as the US, Russia, and Israel have argued there's no need for new international regulations on such capabilities. Others, however, argue that rules need to be put in place sooner rather than later.

Correction: September 26, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the surname of the US deputy secretary of defense. She's Kathleen Hicks, not Kathleen Kicks.