- Russian troops have launched a brutal offensive in eastern Ukraine near Avdiivka.
- They have made progress, largely surrounding Ukrainian defenses, but at a high cost of troops and resources.
Russia is throwing its weight into a fight in eastern Ukraine, a battle over a ruined town, and while its troops have made progress, even largely surrounding Ukrainian defenses, the bloody offensive has been messy and come at a high price.
Russian sources from the front lines of the fighting are saying Ukraine's relentless artillery and a lack of coordination and preparation within the Russian ranks are preventing better outcomes — even as Moscow's military leadership prioritizes occupying the region no matter the cost.
Earlier this month, Russia turned its focus towards Avdiivka, an eastern Ukrainian city in occupied Donetsk. The shift towards a major offensive comes after Russian troops remained on the defensive for months, largely keeping in trenches deep behind minefields and anti-tank obstacles while Ukraine launched its counteroffensive.
Fighting in Avdiivka has so far been nothing short of devastating. The slaughter on the Russian side, particularly of inexperienced troops, is reminiscent of the battle for Bakhmut earlier this year. A Ukrainian military spokesperson said last week that in a period of six days, forces fighting for Russia saw an estimated 2,500 soldiers killed and wounded, per Reuters.
One Russian milblogger apparently on the front lines near Avdiivka described the situation in a post on Telegram, explaining that a lack of coordination and leadership left troops in the area exposed to mines and extreme Ukrainian shelling, resulting in major losses. He also criticized inaccurate reports being sent to higher-ups about progress in Avdiivka, as well as problems with outdated weapons, according to a translation of the post.
A service member seemingly fighting in Avdiivka complained in a separate post about Russia's brutal but not entirely ineffective "human wave tactics," which involve sending masses of poorly trained and ill-equipped soldiers into bloody assaults. The strategy was previously employed last winter, resulting in widespread carnage.
The author of the post described the "human wave tactics" — or "meat assault" — as "any assault by infantry forces without artillery support, without suppressing enemy firing points," according to a translation.
"Why is this happening?" they wrote. "Mostly due to the lack of means of suppression. Or the inability to properly manage them." This "is a 'meat assault' in its most uncomplicated form" and "the result is zero," the added.
The Telegram posts appear to primarily describe combat operations for forces fighting under the banner of the separatist territories, the so-called "people's republics" in eastern Ukraine, as opposed to the regular Russian forces, which have had their own problems in this fight.
George Barros, the geospatial-intelligence team lead and a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War think tank in Washington, DC, told Insider that it is unsurprising to see poor coordination and incompetence between several of the Donetsk Peoples Republic brigades of the 1st Army Corps given their track records. And while conventional Russian forces in the Army have reinforced since the fighting began, that has not decisively improved the situation.
But that's not to say Russia hasn't made progress. Last week, experts at ISW confirmed Russian advances in geolocated footage. The map showed Russian forces surrounding Avdiivka on three fronts, threatening to eventually surround a pocket of Ukrainian forces in the area.
Although Ukrainian troops have dug deep defenses, they've also taken heavy losses in the fighting. One Ukrainian service member on the front line posted on Telegram that the "titanic work of the units stationed there continues," but two new Russian brigades coming in have "limitless" offensive potential, according to a translation.
They indicated that the human wave tactics on the Russian side are taking a toll, writing: "Numbers are numbers, and even if 20 of the 100 reach the trenches, our soldiers can hardly give them an equal fight, because they simply got tired destroying those 80."
It remains to be seen how the fight for Avdiivka plays out, but it's likely Ukraine will maintain its positions unless Russia significantly reinforces their efforts or something goes awry, Barros said. Ukraine controls key stronghold defenses dating back to the initial 2014 ceasefire lines, where Ukraine has had just under a decade to dig in and reinforce the area. That is not unlike Russia's defenses in Zaporizhzhia, where troops established extensive defenses that slowed and stalled much of Ukraine's counteroffensive progress in the area.
Russia has prioritized capturing Avdiivka despite setbacks. It regrouped its available forces and resources after its first wave of attacks earlier this month and is now conducting a second wave that Barros said in a video posted last week "suggests that the Russian forces either believe that they can earnestly take Avdiivka or that Russia's command continues prioritizing attacks on this particular axis despite previous lack of success and losses."
Russia has perhaps decided Avdiivka needs to be a battlefield victory because Moscow has had few of this year beyond Bakhmut, often seen as a Pyrrhic victory. Russia's fixation on the city could also be strategic, as the loss of Avdiivka could force Ukraine to pull back from the threshold of Donetsk, making it harder for them to launch attacks to retake the area and giving Russia more of the region to establish supply routes and connect main routes. It's specific motivations are unclear.