- A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would be risky, but it is a possibility.
- China experts at CSIS assessed three possible blockade scenarios and how they'd play out.
A Chinese blockade of Taiwan aimed at cutting the island off from the rest of the world and forcing Beijing's control onto its people would be a significant undertaking, one that would be risky and far from a guaranteed success.
Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies published a paper this week on three scenarios in which China could blockade Taiwan, potential options designed to isolate it and break the willingness to resist among the people without risking an amphibious assault operation. The paper also assessed the potential for that situation to escalate into an invasion or a broader conflict in which the US and its allies get involved.
The CSIS report relies on Chinese military doctrine, tabletop exercises, and expert assessments to support its findings and notes that the three blockade scenarios presented aren't the only options for China to take control of Taiwan.
A quarantine or, taking things a step further, blockade of Taiwan has long been discussed by Chinese military planners and various officials and experts as an option for China to achieve unification with Taiwan. A blockade is a high-risk operation, though, raising the chance of a broader, longer conflict, as it is an act of war.
In recent years, there has been growing concern that China will pursue non-peaceful means to achieve unification as Beijing engages in aggression at sea and in the air around Taiwan.
This trend has been well documented by the US Department of Defense, which noted in its 2023 report on China's military that the year prior saw "amplified" pressure from China against Taiwan, including what it identified as "increased provocative and destabilizing actions in and around the Taiwan Strait," as well as significant acts of political, economic, and military coercion.
Cross-strait tensions spiked, though, in January 2024 when Taiwan elected its new president, Lai Ching-te, much to Beijing's disapproval.
Lai's win prompted China to brand him a separatist and pursue a series of actions aimed at punishing Taiwan, including military actions around its most vulnerable islands near mainland China and more massive drills that showed how easily China could surround Taiwan and potentially pull off something like a blockade.
The new CSIS report presents three potential blockade scenarios. The first, an all-out kinetic blockade, is the harshest option and is very closely aligned with Chinese military doctrine.
A complex operation, it could begin with China announcing live-fire exercises around Taiwan, which would quickly become large-scale military operations against it.
Per the CSIS paper, China could opt to conduct strikes against hundreds of military, government, and infrastructure targets on Taiwan while also cutting off its internet and communication access. It would covertly lay mines at Taiwan's major ports, implement a no-fly zone over it, and close the entire Taiwan Strait off.
There's a risk of escalation as kinetic strikes risk a kinetic response that could ignite a conflict.
The second scenario presented, a mining blockade, has similar foundations but focuses on laying sea mines around Taiwan's ports to intimidate Taiwan's military and commercial shipping.
In this scenario, experts noted China could launch cyberattacks that shut down military and civilian communication systems, as well as internet access, instead of coordinated kinetic strikes. Some of Taiwan's defenses would still be active, though, preserving its ability to fight back, potentially by targeting China's air force with its air defenses. As with the first scenario, there's a risk of further escalation.
The second situation, however, puts the US and its allies in much more of a gray area than the first one, as a controlled, partial blockade is less likely to prompt the same kind of international outrage and military involvement, the experts wrote.
And the third scenario, a limited blockade, is a variation of the second but excludes sea mining. By avoiding laying mines and kinetic attacks, Beijing would likely be in control of how the conflict escalates and would be able to maintain a more restrained narrative on the global stage, possibly raising questions about whether intervention from the US is warranted at all.
In this situation, China would potentially be relying primarily on the force presence provided by its navy and air force. This option carries less risk, but the potential for escalation is there regardless.
For Taiwan, all three scenarios represent serious challenges. Its economy is heavily reliant on trade, with the new CSIS report noting that its imports and exports were 61 and 69 percent, respectively, of its GDP in 2022. It is believed to have only a few months of energy and food stockpiles to sustain itself.
It's unclear if Taiwan's military could stand against major Chinese military operations, especially if the US and its allies don't come to its aid. And in that situation, it is also unclear how long Taiwan would hold out, how long it would resist.
For China, there are plenty of unknowns, too, though.
Per the CSIS report, "the success or failure of a Chinese blockade depends on many factors," including "Taiwan's resilience and willingness to defend itself and the extent to which Washington and its allies intervene." It says these are "critical."
Other considerations are how well-prepared the People's Liberation Army is, how Beijing controls its front-line forces, and how it manages escalation. The CSIS experts say these "are important not only to a successful blockade but also to ensure that a blockade does not unintentionally escalate into an invasion or war."