- Experts believe that China wants to fulfil its territorial ambitions without firing a shot — and it’s on a 10-year timeline.
- The time is centred around the 2021 100th anniversary of the CCP and the anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049.
- The fear is that if China is unable to meet the deadlines, it may resort to large scale military conflict.
“We are entering the decade of concern and in the next 10 years, if the Chinese leaders are unable to acquire the territory that they believe is theirs through non-kinetic means then the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and those using the PLA will try to convince the leadership that its time to use military force,” said James Fanell, the former director of intelligence and information operations of the US Pacific Fleet in the US Navy.
China is on a timeline
Experts are concerned that since Chinese President Xi Jinping came into power in 2013 — China has been on a timeline.
“They’ve [China] told us that their timeline is centred around two centennials — one is in 2021 on the 100th anniversary of CCP and then in 2049, the anniversary of the People’s Republic of China,” Fanell pointed during a webinar with Mumbai-based think tank Gateway House and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftun (KAS).
The fear is that if China is not able to “restore its territorial sovereignty,” within the prescribed timeline, military conflict may be on the cards.
Without firing a shot
Fanell believes that China would prefer to get what it wants without having to fire a shot.“They would prefer to use influence and the art of war without ever actually having to use contact,” he said.
“Fundamentally, many of the issues that trouble the QUAD countries — at least two or three of the QUAD countries — are territorial. It’s less about the freedom of navigation than what is happening in the South China Sea, which is about the violations of sovereignty while China insists about its own sovereignty sensitivities and stepping on other people’s toes,” added Rear Admiral Sudarshan Shrikhande, former head of naval intelligence in the Indian Navy.
The build-up of territorial pressure over the last month
Just yesterday, China passed the controversial Hong Kong security law. According to Beijing, it’s necessary to deal with separatism and foreign interference. On the other hand, critics argue that it will outlaw dissent and destroy the autonomy promised when the territory was returned to China in 1997.
In Bhutan, China is claiming rights over the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary calling it ‘disputed’ territory. “We’ve also seen over the last six to eight weeks, North Korea is suddenly up again after they were relatively quiet for the last couple of years,” pointed out Fanell.
This month, there have been reports of Chinese bombers entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone. Around the disputed Senkaku Islands, intelligence suggests that there is increased activity, not just at the ports but also of tiny submarines in the waters near the area. Chinese Coast Guard vessels are setting records of duration inside contiguous zones.
India has its own experience along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) where 20 soldiers were killed after both sides decided to de-escalate tension along the shared border.
“They are going to use everything in their, what they call, comprehensive national power — diplomacy, economic, information, military — to get to their objective which is to have territorial integrated sovereignty and inclusion of everything that they believe is their sovereign territory,” said Fanell.
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