A foreign policy expert says Iran has 2 options to hit back at Trump: Strike now, or quietly plan something much worse
- Tensions are running high between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Iran's top military official, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, in an airstrike last week.
- Iran's top leaders have repeatedly vowed retaliation against the US.
- So far it's unclear what Iran plans to do, but experts agree that Iran is serious about retaliating - the question is only a matter of timing.
- One expert said Iran has two options: Quickly strike the US now, or wait and plan for something more sinister in the future.
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Tensions are running high between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump ordered the killing of Iran's top military commander, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, in an airstrike last week.
The move is a major escalation with Iran that is widely expected to result in profound retaliation.
Iran has repeatedly vowed to avenge Soleimani's death, and on Sunday said it would no longer comply with the 2015 nuclear deal.
Some have also speculated that any Iranian revenge could include cyberattacks against US banks and power grids, which could be devastating. It could also call on its vast network of Middle Eastern allies to attack by proxy, as suggested by Maj. Gen. Hossein Dehghan, who advises the Iranian Supreme Leader, in a Sunday interview.
Trump in turn has threatened to hit dozens of Iranian sites if Iran strikes "Americans" or "American assets," and doubled down on his threat to target cultural sites in Iran - which could constitute a war crime under international law.
So far it's unclear what Iran plans to do, but experts seem to agree that Iran is serious about retaliating - the question is only a matter of timing.
"A clear-cut declaration of war"
Lydia Khalil, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, told Business Insider that Trump's move is a "significant escalation in the Iran-US conflict," and to Iranians is a clear-cut declaration of war.
"Soleimani is one of the most - if not the most powerful person - in Iran, and the country will respond accordingly," Khalil said.
As Dehghan, the Iranian military general, told CNN on Sunday: "We can say America, Mr. Trump, has taken action directly against us - so we take direct action against America."
Still, it is difficult to determine exactly what action Iran will take in response to the airstrike, though Iran remains poised and ready with its powerful network of proxy groups, Khalil said.
"Soleimani's killing will weaken Iran and limit its capabilities in the foreign arena, given his significant stature and control of Iranian foreign and national security policies," she said.
"However, the Iranian state retains significant capabilities and proxy forces which they can and will unleash in cyclical retaliation."
But Rodger Shanahan, also a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, is skeptical that a war with Iran is imminent, given Iran's comparative weakness in terms of military might against the US.
The country has "limited conventional options," he said, but noted that Iran has two options: either strike the US now or plan something more sinister in the future.
"Iran can do nothing much for a period of time while it works out a response, or it can engage in limited rapid response to save face before more significant action later," Shanahan said.
"An action targeting Soleimani was probably thought of as unlikely, but the US unilaterally changed the rules of the game."
On Tuesday Rear Admiral Ali Tangsiri, the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Corps navy, vowed to "take a harsh revenge, but we will decide about the time and geography of revenge, not the enemies," the state-run Fars news agency reported.
Earlier in the day Iran's security chief Ali Shamkhani also said the government had discussed "scenarios for vengeance" for the US, the state-run Fars news agency reported, according to Bloomberg, and that even the weakest one would be a "historic nightmare."
- Read more:
- Photos of Iranians flooding the streets for Soleimani's funeral show how much he was revered, and hint at how hard Iran may strike back
- Trump's order to kill Iran's top general has sparked a catastrophe of his own making and left him globally isolated
- Why Iran's Qassem Soleimani was on a not-so-secret trip to Iraq when he was assassinated
- Iran has vowed revenge on the US after Trump's airstrike killed its top military commander. Here's how it could happen.