DAN GREENHAUS: Despite All The Happy Talk, I Expect We're Going To See The Government Shutdown Soon

Jana Kasperkevic/Business InsiderDan Greenhaus of BTIG splashes some cold water on the idea that Washington is going to sail through the upcoming budget thicket:

Not unimportantly for stocks on Friday and in front of today’s inauguration ceremonies, Republicans emerged from their VA retreat seemingly realigned. The reporting since suggests that Republican leadership was able to convince the rank of rile that going to the mats over the debt ceiling at this point was foolish and a political loser. The three month extension floated on Friday was by definition an effort to push the ceiling into “third position,” behind the budget expiration and sequester. Arranging the debate this way forces Democrats to confront the budget issue before the Republicans can make an issue out of the debt ceiling but does nothing to address “fiscal cliff forever” syndrome. Of course, with Chuck Schumer suggesting on Meet the Press that additional revenues will be in any new Senate budget, our view that the government will shut down come late March/early April holds for now.