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CREDIT SUISSE: These 4 Charts Look Terrible For Future US Growth

Nov 18, 2013, 20:02 IST

Wikimedia CommonsGiant African land snail

GDP growth depends on several factors, including growth in the labor force, improvement in labor force productivity, and expansion of public and private capital.

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And according to Credit Suisse's Neal Soss, recent trends in these factors don't bode well for the future of economic growth in the economy.

This continues a trend of economists who believe that the US economy is in structural decline, and will not escape sluggish growth for a long time to come.

The first chart shows that labor productivity slowed from 3.5% in the late '90's to under 1% today.

Credit Suisse

Chart number 2 shows the decline in labor force participation, as the US' aging population continues to drop out of the the workforce.

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Credit Suisse

Chart 3 shows the slowdown in private capital accumulation, measured through net business investment as a share of GDP. According to the report, "This ratio fell to multi-decade lows in the wake of the Great Recession, and the rebound since has been tepid. Slower growth in capital accumulation today is a downside factor for productivity in future years."

Credit Suisse


The final chart shows the decline in government investment in infrastructure. While 2009-10 stimulus supported government infrastructure, it has since "declined sharply as as state and local finances deteriorated."

Credit Suisse


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