Commodities Traders Have Succumbed To Their 'Widowmaker Trade'

Writing on the FuelFix blog, Matt Smith points us to the latest results in the spread between March and April 2015 natural gas contracts. This is a when traders attempt to gauge the wind-down in winter supplies.

Earlier this year, the spread for 2015 surged to $0.75, as traders figured this year's polar vortex would have significantly depleted storage for next year.

"...Some market watchers have expressed concern that producers will be unable to fully replenish inventories by the start of next winter," the Wall Street Journal's Nicole Friedman reported earlier this year. "As of Jan. 24, natural-gas supplies stood at 2.193 trillion cubic feet, the lowest level for the week since 2005."

But temperatures are set to dip into the '40s and 50s in the next few weeks for the Midwest and Northeast. As a result, Smith writes, "the expectation of adequate storage levels exiting next winter has narrowed the winter premium on the March contract versus April's contract to a preposterously paltry $0.20."

Here's the chart: