Colombia's local elections are a mess - and the voting hasn't even started yet

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Cuba's President Raul Castro, center, Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos, left, and FARC rebel leader Rodrigo Londono, better known by the nom de guerre Timochenko, pose for photos in Havana.

Colombia made a tremendous stride in September toward ending its half-century conflict when it reached a deal to make peace with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group within six months.

The country's military leadership called the deal "the most important news in 100 years."

However, that developing peace deal could be upended by fraud and violence that has been rampant in Colombian elections, the latest round of which are slated to begin on October 25.

An election that goes smoothly - and well for President Juan Manuel Santos - is considered important to continuing and ultimately completing the peace process. Local governors and mayors who face election will be needed to help disarm and reintegrate 20,000 former FARC fighters, as Colombia Reports notes.

Inaccuracies, fraud, and violence

In early September, the country's Electoral Observation Mission (MOE) warned that nearly 20% of Colombia's 1,101 municipalities are at risk of both violence and electoral fraud ahead of elections that will select mayors, governors, councils, and assemblies.

The group cited spoiled ballots, blank votes, and irregularities in voter-registration levels as electoral risks.

REUTERS/Jaime Saldarriaga

President Juan Manuel Santos casting his vote in the country's presidential election, accompanied by his wife Maria Clemencia and son Martin in Bogota, June 15, 2014.

According to the MOE, 487 municipalities were facing a risk of electoral fraud. Moreover, "If the elections were held to today," the body said, "transparent and secure elections could not be guaranteed in 59 of the municipals marked by extreme electoral risk."

In the weeks since the MOE's report, numerous events have underscored its warnings.

On September 21, the National Electoral Council (CNE) annulled 398,675 voter registrations, after a survey revealed inconsistencies. The council found that in some towns incorrect or forged voter registrations amounted to more than half of the total voter forms reviewed. The following week, 1.18 million registrations tied to fraud were thrown out.

Officials also said as many as 2 million recently filed voter registrations could be fake. For reference, Colombia Reports noted, 17 million Colombians voted in the last round of local elections.

REUTERS/Jaime Saldarriaga

Men wait to vote in presidential elections in Corinto, Colombia, May 25, 2014.

Earlier in September, Colombia's National Registry revealed that 6,550 dead people had been found on current voter rolls. (In 2011 and 2013, a total of 10 million dead people were removed from voter registries, a sum that had accrued due to the infrequency of registry updates.)

On September 28, the Prosecutor General's Office reported that some 20,000 candidates in local elections were facing 103,000 pending criminal investigations. The investigations, according to Caracol Radio, ranged from failing to pay child support to illegally carrying firearms.

The day after that announcement, the CNE said that 974 candidates had been ruled ineligible for the October 25 elections because of "ongoing judicial proceedings or disciplinary sanctions."

REUTERS/Jaime Saldarriaga

A child casts her mother's vote in a polling center during the presidential elections in Bogota, June 15, 2014. Colombians voted in the tightest presidential election in decades.

Emiliano Rivera, the CNE's president magistrate, told Caracol Radio that the candidates in question "were found to be in [active processes] of judicial sentencing or disciplinary sanctions levied by the Prosecutor [General's Office]."

There is also a risk, according to the MOE, that Colombia's elections this month will be marred by violence.

Forced displacement of people, violence against candidates, and activity of illegal armed groups are some of the violence risks cited by the MOE.

Andres Ceballos, the international coordinator for the MOE, told Colombia Reports that the risk of electoral fraud was "complemented by a variety of factors of violence, including threats and violent attempts against public servants or political candidates."

REUTERS/Jaime Saldarriaga

Colombian soldiers stand guard at Bolivar Square during the presidential elections in Bogota, June 15, 2014.

"This year we found a total of 83 acts of electoral violence directed at political candidates or elected officials," Ceballos said, "including assassinations, kidnappings, verbal and/or physical attacks."

Manuel Balarezo via Wikimedia Commons

Antioquia has long been a hub for drug traffickers. Choco and Cauca, located on the Pacific coast, are transit points for narco traffic leaving the country.

There are 438 municipalities throughout Colombia at risk of electoral violence. Affected municipalities are in 29 of 32 Colombian states.

Almost half of the ones at extreme risk are in Antioquia, Cauca, and Choco, three states known to be drug-trafficking centers. (Antioquia was the home base of Pablo Escobar's Medellin cartel.)

Ceballos said that violent acts intended to influence voting are "limited to a very particular set of municipalities," and that authorities were working to ensure transparency.

He also cautioned that partisan divides could hamstring CNE oversight efforts.

A history of impropriety

These risks to electoral integrity are nothing new in Colombia.

During the 1994 presidential election, the campaign of Ernesto Samper, who went on to win, was found to be financed by the Cali cartel.

Reuters

Liberal party presidential candidate Ernesto Samper, center, his wife, Jacquin Strauss, and running mate Humberto de La Calle celebrate their first place finish in the presidential elections, May 29, 1994.

In 2002, the AUC, a paramilitary group, helped Alvaro Uribe win the presidential election. Four years later, 65 congressmen were arrested for using paramilitary support to win their elections. Currently, Colombia's Supreme Court is investigating reported improprieties in President Juan Manuel Santos' successful 2014 reelection campaign.

Elected officials were also among the 600 officials recently arrested for ties to Los Urabeños, the most powerful criminal organization in Colombia.

REUTERS/Jose Miguel Gomez

Colombia's former president, Alvaro Uribe, speaks to the media after casting his vote in Bogota, June 15, 2014.

Already during this campaign season, five candidates have been attacked, including one who was shot in the neck.

Members of the opposition conservative party, headed by former President Alvaro Uribe, have requested increased protection.

In light of the ongoing peace talks with the FARC rebels, though, violence has taken on renewed concern.

In an effort to clamp down on those who could succeed the FARC in drug trafficking and other illegal activities, the Colombian government has launched attacks against criminal leaders in recent weeks. But this effort has also raised concerns about more violence as new criminal leaders emerge.