Auburn (-8.5) over Mississippi State
In 2014 both Mississippi State and Ole Miss were operating on a higher plane of football for a stretch of games, all the way up until the weekend of October 25, when both teams were ranked in the top 3. The next day, Ole Miss would fall to LSU and go into a tailspin, losing three of their last five games to finish the season. Mississippi State would hold on as the top team in the country a bit longer before losing three out of their final four games to end the season.
My point is that teams on cloud nine can collapse fast after a big win. I really love this Mississippi State team, and when they're feeling themselves, they're still capably of anything, but after getting beat down by Georgia, heading out on the road again for another tough game is just a tall order. Lay the points and check back in on the Bulldogs in a few weeks.
LAST WEEK: 3-4
OVERALL: 16-2
Miami (Ohio) (+21) over Notre Dame
Miami coach Chuck Martin used to be a coach at Notre Dame working all the way up to offensive coordinator under Brian Kelly. Why would Kelly spend this game beating up on an old friend when the Irish could jump out to a two touchdown lead and then just cruise to the finish to start game-planning for their trip to UNC next weekend?
Northwestern (+15.5) over Wisconsin
Northwestern has won this game outright two of the past three years, and in their loss last year the game was still within two touchdowns. The Badgers are a force and they have a pretty smooth road to the Big Ten title game if they keep course, but Northwestern has proven they're not ones to roll over in this game.
Virginia Tech (+7) over Clemson
A tough line, but we like to bet the best game of the weekend here and when the lines are tough it's good to stick with the points. Clemson destroyed us on this theory two weeks ago against Louisville, but if Clemson is going to get a challenge this season before the playoffs, the Hokies at home on national television are as good a bet as any for the job.
Minnesota (-12.5) over Maryland
Maryland just lost another quarterback to an ACL tear just as they head into Big Ten play into a reliably solid Minnesota program. Max Bortenschlager will start under center for the Terps, who would be blessed to score whatever his name is worth in Scrabble on Saturday.