CITI: This Is What Will Happen To The World For The Next 4 Years
The team recently became more optimistic about the developed markets.
"For 2013, the advanced economy upgrade is offset by a slight downgrade to our [emerging market] forecasts to leave our global growth forecast at 2.6%, while we are edging up our 2014 global growth forecast from 3.1% to 3.2% (at current exchange rates)," wrote Buiter.
On China: "After last year’s slowdown, we continue to expect China’s economic growth to level off at 7-8% this year and 7-71/2% per year in 2014- 2017, reflected in ongoing rapid productivity gains."
Buiter's team expects euro area GDP to fall, and cut forecasts for various smaller economies: "Even with the recent improvement in financial conditions, major central banks are likely to keep monetary policy loose and indeed to loosen further, with ongoing asset purchases by the Fed and BoJ, further ECB rate cuts and renewed QE by the BoE."
Buiter's team breaks down what's going on in each economy, and gives GDP growth forecasts through 2016. We pulled the highlights.