Analysts polled by Bloomberg were looking for PMI to inch higher to 50.5.
Analysts have been warning that investors should take January-February data with a pinch of salt because of the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday.
"I wouldn't really read much into this report thanks to holiday. China's recovery will likely continue through mid-year then fade," Bloomberg BRIEF's Michael McDonough tweeted.
Details from the report show that all but one of the sub-indices declined.
| Feb 2013 | Jan 2013 | |
| PMI | 50.1 | 50.4 |
| Output | 51.2 | 51.3 |
| New Orders | 50.1 | 51.6 |
| New Export Orders | 47.3 | 48.5 |
| Backlog of Work | 44.4 | 44.4 |
| Inventories of finished goods | 46.6 | 47.4 |
| Purchases quantity | 50.2 | 53.2 |
| Imports | 48.1 | 49.1 |
| Input prices | 55.5 | 57.2 |
| Inventories of raw materials | 49.5 | 50.1 |
| Employment | 47.6 | 47.8 |
| Supplier delivery times | 48.3 | 50.0 |
Societe Generale's Wei Yao had expected the official reading to rise to 51. "The unexpected decline of 0.2 points in January was partly due to insufficient adjustments for seasonality, which should be reversed in February and March," she said in a note published before the official number was out. She thinks Chinese manufacturing "is still positive on balance, given positive signs from several other leading indicators".
The government surveys 5000 companies for its survey. Remember a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The HSBC PMI will be out at 8:45 p.m. ET.