China has tried 40 things to prop up its crumbling markets in the last 3 months - and only one of them has worked
There are lots of them (40 by our count) and they haven't really worked.
Things like rate cuts, loosening rules on pension fund investing, and banning short selling look more like the result of fear than carefully considered policy.
There's only one thing that seems to have a real effect: Direct buying by the Chinese state.
This was seen in effect in the Chinese markets on Thursday, which popped up more than 5% putting an end to a massive five-day losing streak. Bloomberg reported that the government bought stocks in large companies to stabilize the market ahead of a military parade next week.
But the BAML analysts say stocks will keep crashing if China keeps pressing every button on its financial policy console (emphasis ours):
We doubt that this represents the bottom of the market - it appears to us that the government has significantly reduced its direct purchase in the market in recent days and is now trying to replace the direct intervention with the softer, more market oriented, and indirect support. We doubt this will work beyond a few days. As a result, we recommend selling into any rebound.
The market is still down over a third from highs it reached in June.
China cut interest rates earlier in the week, which seems to work when markets are stable and gradually moving up, but not that effective in a crash:
And here's a list of all the different policy buttons China has pressed on its financial crisis console since markets between the last two interest rate cuts.
The country has tried something nearly every day: