scorecard
  1. Home
  2. stock market
  3. CHART OF THE DAY: It's A Mistake To Assume We're Due For A Stock Market Sell-Off

CHART OF THE DAY: It's A Mistake To Assume We're Due For A Stock Market Sell-Off

Sam Ro   

CHART OF THE DAY: It's A Mistake To Assume We're Due For A Stock Market Sell-Off

On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed at an all-time high.

However, the most remarkable aspect of this achievement may be that it got there with very few notable pullbacks.

"It’s been 90 trading days since the last 5%+ dip and 374 days since a correction," writes Deutsche Bank's David Bianco in a new note to clients.

So, does this mean we're overdue for a sell-off?

Not necessarily, says Bianco.

"Dips of 5%+ are inevitable, but they don’t happen in absence of bad news or emerging risk," he writes. "Since 1960, the average number of trading days in-between 5%+ dips is 118 and in- between 10%+ corrections is 357 days. The [standard deviation] is 92 and 387 days, respectively.

"Hence, pullbacks aren’t clockwork. Dips come on disappointment, which raises uncertainty that requires reassessment at the time – dips aren’t free. Only 3 years since 1960 without a 5%+ dip from 6mo high: 1964, 1993, & 1995."

Here's a chart showing the longest periods between dips and corrections. We're right around average now.

Chart of the day shows frequency of dips and corrections, march 2013

Deutsche Bank

READ MORE ARTICLES ON



Popular Right Now



Advertisement