This cocktail of risks have some experts worried that China's economy will land hard and spiral into a financial crisis.
Unfortunately, historical precedent doesn't offer much comfort.
"Sustained periods of high investment enabled Asian economies to achieve faster growth, but this has typically led to banking / foreign exchange crises," warn the economists at Deutsche Bank. Here are two bullets from their recent "The House View" report:
- "Japan’s growth has averaged ~1% since 1991 compared to 4.65% in the previous decade"
- "Thailand (-10.6%) and South Korea (-5.7%) experienced sharp GDP contractions in 1998 as foreign capital dried up during Asian crisis"
"China’s near 50% investment rate is far larger than other Asian economies during their take-off periods," they add.
To be clear, a financial crisis is not Deutsche Bank's base case scenario. But it's a scenario that's not totally unrealistic.
Business Insider, Deutsche Bank