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CHART OF THE DAY: Asia Has A Bad Track Record Of Hot Economies That Quickly Spiral Into Financial Crisis

Aug 1, 2013, 03:49 IST

China's economy is decelerating significantly. And its financial system is leveraged more than most emerging economies.

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This cocktail of risks have some experts worried that China's economy will land hard and spiral into a financial crisis.

Unfortunately, historical precedent doesn't offer much comfort.

"Sustained periods of high investment enabled Asian economies to achieve faster growth, but this has typically led to banking / foreign exchange crises," warn the economists at Deutsche Bank. Here are two bullets from their recent "The House View" report:

  • "Japan’s growth has averaged ~1% since 1991 compared to 4.65% in the previous decade"
  • "Thailand (-10.6%) and South Korea (-5.7%) experienced sharp GDP contractions in 1998 as foreign capital dried up during Asian crisis"

"China’s near 50% investment rate is far larger than other Asian economies during their take-off periods," they add.

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To be clear, a financial crisis is not Deutsche Bank's base case scenario. But it's a scenario that's not totally unrealistic.

Business Insider, Deutsche Bank

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