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Clayton Kershaw became the first pitcher to sign a contract worth more than $200 million when he agreed to a 7-year, $215 million extension with the Dodgers, according to Ramona Shelburne of ESPN.com.
While it may seem crazy to give a starting pitcher more than $30 million per season, there is still a very good chance the Dodgers will come out ahead at the end of the deal (cont. below).
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If we consider the value of Kershaw to the Dodgers in terms of production alone ($5 million per Win in Wins Above Replacement*), Kershaw has already given the Dodgers $128.8 million worth of production and yet he has been paid only $20.2 million in salary.
Even if Kershaw has an average value over the next seven seasons of just 5.0 WAR ($25 million per season), which would be a drop from his production over the last three seasons (avg. 5.5 WAR), Kershaw will have been worth $303.8 million to the Dodgers. That is still considerably more than the $235.2 million he will have made by that point.
Of course, there is always a threat that Kershaw will break down. But Kershaw will only be 26 in 2014 and that is less likely to happen than if he signed a 7-year deal at age 30 and the Dodgers can feel good about this deal.
* Wins Above Replacement value estimates how much it would cost a team to acquire one Win worth of talent in free agency. It is currently valued at $5 million per Win and typically rises slightly each year.
Data via Fangraphs.com