Recruiters who've worked with companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and PayPal reveal how job seekers can prepare for the worst as the pandemic changes how companies hire
- Due to the coronavirus pandemic, companies are shifting gears dramatically when it comes to hiring, with two major trends emerging: businesses are either implementing immediate hiring freezes or fast-tracking key C-level roles.
- With a looming recession, businesses across industries at a standstill, a steep dropoff in new job openings, and a rise in unemployment claims, six veteran recruiters reveal what will happen with hiring trends over the next weeks to months.
- For the last few years it's been a job-seeker's market - that's no longer the case, so candidates should be prepared for a company-driven market where employers have greater leverage and where compensation takes a dip.
- Those currently looking for new career opportunities should be patient and double the expected job-search timeline or stick it out with current employers until hiring picks up again.
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The current coronavirus pandemic has had an immediate and unprecedented impact on the world and the global economy at large.
Given the predicted recession, the staggering number of businesses that have been brought to a halt, the steep dropoff in new job openings in the US, and the rise of US unemployment claims, Business Insider reached out to six veteran recruiters with dozens of years of experience combined - dating back to the Great Recession and earlier - and who have placed candidates across industries to share what they think hiring will look like over the next few months and what this new climate means for job seekers.
The immediate trends: Hiring freezes and fast-tracking key executive rolesIn the short term, businesses are reacting to the pandemic by shifting gears dramatically, with two clear camps emerging - companies either implementing immediate hiring freezes or escalating hiring for key leadership roles, according to Claire Telling, the CEO of the marketing, media, and communications executive search firm Grace Blue Partnership whose clients include Amazon, Coca-Cola, Ford, The New York Times, Ford, Spotify, and Lego.
"Those companies with hiring freezes have adopted a short-term bunker mentality to see what plays out in the weeks ahead, before committing to increased staff costs," said Telling.
She noted that the businesses that have been the most impacted among her clients include those in the manufacturing, customer service, and retail industries, while she noted "stay-at-home industries" - that is, companies that will fare the best in the new stay-at-home economy such as Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix, Activision, and Zoom - are "doubling down on mission-critical leadership hires." That is, the positions they need in place right away, such as CEO roles and revenue-generating positions.
Other hiring veterans echoed seeing similar trends. Bryan Zawikowski, a recruiter with 25 years of experience and the vice president and general manager of the military-transition division for executive-recruiting firm Lucas Group who has helped place candidates at global companies like Microsoft, 23andMe, Tesla, Stryker, and Honeywell, explained the reason for the dramatic change: "It isn't the coronavirus so much as it is economic uncertainty," he said.
From his view, healthcare, food, and pharma companies are the few industries not currently affected, and he predicted all others will be affected in some way ("except maybe toilet paper manufacturers," he added).
Similar to Telling's take, Zawikowski shared that "urgent and essential hires," such as C-level roles that are essential to a company's operations, like CEOs, CFOs, and chief product officers (CPOs), will continue to be in demand.
Some candidates with accepted offers, however, now have had these rescinded as a result of the current economic climate, said Tom McGee, the general manager of the sales and marketing division at Lucas Group. McGee has 35 years of experience in recruiting and has placed candidates at global companies like True Value, Ashley Furniture, and Thomson Reuters.
Overall, it's "highly likely" that the job market will slow for the next two months, until there's more clarity on the pandemic and the state of the economy, said Telling.
It's no longer a candidate's market - expect lower compensation packages and more competitionOver the last few years it's been a candidate-driven market where job seekers have had the upper hand, but now those looking for new opportunities should mentally prepare for an employer-driven market, said Bob Prather, the CFO and general manager of the accounting and finance recruiting division for Lucas Group who transitioned to recruiting after working in finance roles for Ernst & Young, Spectrum Brands, and more. Now candidates will have less leverage throughout the process and around compensation as job openings diminish.
Telling shared that candidates should be prepared for lower offers, particularly in industries struggling to avoid layoffs.
"There may be instances where the base compensation you would normally expect to get will be a bit lower," she said, noting that candidates may be able to ask for stock options or other incentives to help round out the overall compensation package. Not only that, there will likely be more competition if predicted layoffs come to fruition.
Also expect hiring process changes and delays. If you're actively looking for jobs, double your projected search timeline.In some instances, the overall hiring process could be delayed for several weeks - particularly as decision makers address their companies' immediate needs and chief talent officers handle the logistics of keeping team members safe - while for other companies it may be sped up for fast-tracked roles where the executive hiring process may close in under a month compared to the usual three-month timeline, said Telling.
Part of the slowdown is because companies are taking the time to figure out what positions they can truly afford to hire and trying to predict what shifts in strategy they may need to make moving forward - particularly with the current emphasis on "remote work dominating the status quo for the moment," said Kerri McKinney, the director of global sourcing for Terminal.io, a remote engineering staffing company, who has over 10 years of experience in the recruiting industry, hiring for high-growth companies like Indeed, PayPal, and Amazon.
Given the general call for social distancing, for interviews that aren't on hold almost all will be moved online, said Telling, something she predicted will be a trend for the foreseeable future. "So, get your technology ready for online meetings, and make sure to do a test run of what you look like on your laptop's camera before your next interview," she added.
And that's another reason for delays, as companies scramble to get videoconferencing in place and figure out how they can handle remote onboarding, said McGee. If you've never had a video interview before, he suggested practicing ahead of time.
McKinney advised that candidates secure a noise-free space, nice lighting, and a strong internet connection for virtual interviews.
For those actively looking for roles, Zawikowski said that start dates originally planned for March and April may be pushed to May or June. Whatever your current projected job search timeline is, you should double it, he noted. "People need to understand it is going to take a lot longer than you think to land an opportunity," he explained.
Be patient and ready to adapt, focus on companies most likely to survive a recession, and consider sticking with current employers"If you don't have to leave your job, don't. At least [not] for the next three to four months," said Zawikowski. Not only will there be delays in the process, if you do get a new job and the new company goes through layoffs, you will find yourself on the unfortunate end of the "last in, first out" practice common among many employers, where the most recent hires are let go first, he explained.
"At times like this, it's perfectly fine to put your career dreams on hold while you maintain a steady job," said Telling.
For those who plan to continue to look during this time, the recruiters Business Insider interviewed shared a variety of strategies for moving forward.
Many recruiters repeated the same advice: be patient, expect delays, and plan for changes.
It's not personal, said Patrick Cahill, the founder of #TwiceAsNice Recruiting who created his company after 10 years of consulting for recruiters and has worked with hundreds of companies, including Schunk Group, Harpoon Brewery, and Mitsubishi Fuso. The fact is, companies are figuring out the impact of the pandemic in real time, he added. He recommended focusing on seeking out companies that might see growth during this time, such as those that support remote working or virtual learning.
To get a feel for how companies are being impacted, he suggested checking out the news sections of company websites as well as their social media posts and other public announcements.
Look at the roles "recession-proof" companies, such as those mentioned earlier, are hiring, said Telling, "so you are prepared to jump immediately when you see the right job posted." She also suggested candidates become more flexible about what types of roles to consider - including freelancing and contract work, which "will certainly see an increase," and ensure resumes are up to date and references are on hand to be ready to apply when potential opportunities arise.
Given the new mandate for remote working across so many companies, there will be a new focus on looking for candidates who can be successful in autonomous working environments, said McKinney. "Employee experience in remote work may soon become more of a requirement than a 'nice-to-have,'" she said. To stand out, highlight your unique skill set and experiences that demonstrate self-motivation and strong communication skills, she added.
Many recruiters suggested candidates focus on maintaining their mental and physical health during this time, to be ready for the next career opportunity when hiring picks up.
How to follow up with recruiters if you're in the job search processIf you've spoken to companies about roles and you expect to move forward in the process, Cahill suggested sending an email checking in on how current events are affecting the company's hiring timeline to set expectations. This could alleviate anxiety for candidates and won't come across as too pushy, he added.
McGee shared that this is a good time for candidates to take stock as well. Ask questions like, "Are the companies I'm interviewing at financially stable?" "Do they have a plan to handle the coronavirus pandemic and unstable market?" "How did they fare during the last recession?"
How long will hiring be in a state of flux? That's anyone's guess.Given the current state of the pace of change due to the global pandemic and how businesses are shifting as a result, Telling shared that she expects her views on these trends to change in the weeks ahead, given there are no clear market indicators for what might happen next week, let alone the next month. That said, she noted that the companies she works with are anxious to resume hiring as normal - as soon as they're financially able.
Zawikowski, who weathered recruiting during the Great Recession's hiring downturn, said, "although it has been reported that some companies are over leveraged, the financial aspects of this coming recession do not appear to be nearly as significant as the crisis that exacerbated the depth and length of the 2008 to 2009 recession, in addition to [the] 'slow-motion' recovery" that followed.
For Cahill the big question is: How long will this coronavirus-related disruption affect businesses for? The further the disruption, he explained, the further hiring for new roles will be pushed back. "We just don't know enough to truly predict where we'll be in a month or two," he said.