Zerodha co-founder Nithin Kamath says bracing for a huge revenue hit even as the company hits ₹8,320 crore revenue in FY24

Indian financial services firm Zerodha made headlines recently for hitting ₹8,320 crore revenue in FY24. However, its CEO and co-founder Nithin Kamath says that the company is preparing for a decline in revenue as several regulatory changes are expected to take effect later this year.

Kamath, in a blog post, outlined the challenges ahead, which could result in a revenue drop of up to 50% as Zerodha faces a combination of stricter regulations and shifting market conditions.

Zerodha braces for revenue drop

One of the main concerns for Zerodha is the new Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) regulation, which will be implemented on October 1, 2024. Kamath expects a 10% dip in revenue as the "true-to-label" circular is enforced. This change will impose stricter guidelines on brokers like Zerodha regarding the kind of financial products they offer, potentially limiting some of their key revenue-generating activities.

Another significant factor affecting Zerodha’s future revenue is the ongoing review of index derivatives regulations. Index derivatives, which are a crucial part of Zerodha's business model, could soon face changes that might severely impact the company’s earnings. Kamath estimates that such modifications could reduce earnings by 30-50%. Additionally, with the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) set to rise in October 2024, the costs of futures trading could further impact Zerodha’s profitability, though the effect on options trading may be limited.

Zerodha is also set to face revenue pressures due to changes in Annual Maintenance Charges (AMC) under the new Basic Services Demat Account (BSDA) thresholds. From October 2024, brokers will only be able to charge full AMC fees from customers with holdings of ₹10 lakhs or more, up from ₹4 lakhs currently. Combined with Zerodha's removal of account opening fees, this is expected to significantly impact their revenue.

Yet another challenge comes from Zerodha’s decision to halt payouts from its referral program. The program, which incentivised customers to refer others to the platform, will now only allow payouts to Authorised Persons (AP) registered with exchanges. This new regulation limits the number of people who can refer customers, slowing the firm's growth.

Zerodha's financial results

Despite these looming challenges, Zerodha posted strong financial results for the fiscal year 2024. The firm recorded a 62% increase in profits, reaching ₹4,700 crore, with revenue climbing by 21% to ₹8,320 crore. Traders using Zerodha's platform are also sitting on over ₹1 lakh crore in unrealised profits, largely driven by strong market performance and increased retail participation.

However, Kamath also cautioned that the profitability boost in recent years has been fuelled by a bull market, which could reverse at any time. If the market turns, Zerodha, like many other financial service providers, may face significant challenges. To prepare for such an eventuality, the company has built up a strong financial position, with Kamath stating that their net worth now stands at nearly 40% of the customer funds they manage.