Reuters
- The Boeing 737 Max was found to have a high likelihood of future crashes in a November 2018 FAA analysis, after the first crash of the plane type.
- However, the agency allowed the troubled Boeing plane to continue flying.
- The analysis raises additional questions about how the FAA certified the plane and allowed it to continue flying after the first crash.
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An internal FAA analysis after the first Boeing 737 Max crash found a high likelihood of future crashes. However, regulators decided to let the plane continue flying.
The November, 2018 internal review was discussed by the House Rep. Peter DeFazio during a transportation committee hearing on Wednesday. The news was first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The analysis reportedly found that without design changes, a 737 Max plane could be expected to crash every two to three years, The Journal reported. That was a substantially greater risk than Boeing or the FAA had indicated publicly.
House Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure
The analysis by the FAA found that without interventions, there could be 15 more crashes over the life of the 737 Max, attributable to the plane's design.
The assessment raises additional questions about how the 737 Max was initially certified, and allowed to continue flying after the first crash, Lion Air Flight 610 in Indonesia. Less than five months later, Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crashed.
"I don't know why this airplane wasn't grounded after the analysis was done," Rep. Peter DeFazio said.
The FAA issued an emergency Airworthiness Directive about runaway trim stabilization control on the 737 Max after the first crash, but it did not discuss the automated system behind the crashes, known as the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS), or highlight the FAA's risk assessment.
The FAA projected as many as 15 similar catastrophic incidents globally over the life of the global 737 Max fleet, Rep. DeFazio said, unless fixes including the software changes Boeing has reportedly made, were implemented.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of the FAA report characterized the Max, without fixes, as more accident-prone than other Boeing models.
The 737 Max, the latest version of Boeing's best-selling plane, has been grounded since March after crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia killed 346 people.
Investigations into the two crashes suggest that MCAS erroneously engaged, forcing the planes' noses to point down, and that pilots were unable to regain control of the aircraft.
The system could be activated by a single sensor reading. In both crashes, the sensors are thought to have failed, sending erroneous data to the flight computer and, without a redundant check in place, triggering the automated intervention.
MCAS was designed to compensate for the 737 Max having larger engines than previous 737 generations. The larger engines could cause the plane's nose to tip upward, leading to a stall. In that situation, the system could automatically point the nose down to negate the effect of the engine size.
Since the grounding, other potential safety issues have been found in the plane, leading Boeing to make major changes to how its onboard flight computer functions.
Do you work for Boeing, or one of the airlines affected by the Boeing 737 Max grounding? Contact this reporter at dslotnick@businessinsider.com.
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