India's diamond sector faces major crisis amid plummeting imports, exports, and massive job losses

India’s diamond industry is grappling with a severe downturn as both imports and exports have significantly declined over the past three years, triggering defaults, factory closures, and widespread job losses, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The think tank highlighted that the sector is struggling with unsold rough diamonds and increasing competition from lab-grown alternatives.

Ajay Srivastava, Founder of GTRI, pointed out that the downturn in India’s diamond industry has had devastating effects. "This has led to defaults, factory closures, and widespread job losses. Tragically, more than 60 individuals from Gujarat’s diamond sector have taken their own lives, highlighting the intense financial and emotional stress," Srivastava said. He emphasised the urgent need for intervention to address these issues and ensure the survival of the sector.

Declining imports and exports

Data from GTRI paints a grim picture of the industry. Imports of rough diamonds have dropped by 24.5%, from USD 18.5 billion in 2021-22 to USD 14 billion in 2023-24, reflecting weakened global demand and fewer orders for diamond processing. After accounting for re-exported rough diamonds, net imports saw a 25.3% decrease, signalling reduced interest in processing diamonds in India.

The situation is even worse on the export front. Exports of cut and polished diamonds fell by 34.6%, from USD 24.4 billion in FY 2022 to USD 13.1 billion in FY 2024. Net exports experienced an even sharper decline, dropping by 45.3% from USD 15.9 billion to USD 8.7 billion, indicating a weak global market and rising inventories of unsold diamonds.

Rising inventories and market competition

The report also highlighted that the percentage of unsold diamonds returned to India increased from 35% to 45.6% during this period. Additionally, the gap between net rough diamond imports and net exports of cut and polished diamonds widened from USD 1.6 billion in FY 2022 to USD 4.4 billion in FY 2024, signifying a growing stockpile of unsold inventory and insufficient export demand.

Several factors contribute to this crisis. Global economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions — particularly in key markets like the US, China, and Europe — have led to decreased spending on luxury items such as diamonds. Fluctuating global diamond prices have added to this uncertainty, causing buyers to hesitate in purchasing rough diamonds.
Moreover, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the global diamond supply chain, with sanctions on Russia, a major producer of rough diamonds, further complicating trade. This slowdown has impacted the global market, stalling the flow of diamonds and affecting India’s processing sector.

Another challenge facing the industry is the shift in consumer preferences toward lab-grown diamonds, which are seen as more affordable, ethical, and sustainable. This shift is particularly evident in markets where customers are becoming more conscious of the environmental and ethical implications of their purchases.

Internal regulatory and operational hurdles

Internally, the Indian diamond sector is facing a host of challenges. Many polishing units are burdened with unsold inventories of polished diamonds, discouraging them from importing new rough diamonds. Rising operational costs, including labour, energy, and materials, have also made it difficult for many polishing units to remain profitable. These factors have led to the closure of many shops and significant layoffs, particularly in Surat, the world’s largest hub for diamond cutting and polishing.

The sector's heavy reliance on financing has also become a problem. Tighter credit conditions and reduced lending from banks have made it increasingly difficult for businesses to purchase rough diamonds, further stalling production. Additionally, a significant number of cut and polished diamonds exported from India are being returned due to quality issues, overstocking, and price fluctuations, creating costly delays and adding to the strain on exporters.

Dubai's rising influence

An interesting development highlighted by GTRI is the increasing share of rough diamond imports from Dubai, which does not produce diamonds itself. Instead, Dubai imports diamonds from countries like Botswana, Angola, South Africa, and Russia and re-exports them to India. Dubai’s share in India’s rough diamond imports surged from 36.3% in FY 2020 to 60.8% in FY 2024, further rising to 64.5% in April-June 2024. In contrast, Belgium’s share of these imports fell from 37.9% in FY 2020 to 17.6% in FY 2024.
One major reason for Dubai's increasing role is India’s high corporate tax regime, which pushes foreign suppliers of rough diamonds to re-export their diamonds to Dubai before sending them to India. This has rendered India’s Special Notified Zones (SNZs) in Mumbai and Surat largely ineffective.

Revitalising the sector

To help revitalise the struggling sector, GTRI has proposed several measures. These include extending export credit terms, exempting foreign rough diamond sellers from corporate taxes in India, regulating the lab-grown diamond industry, and reconsidering the zero-tariff import of cut and polished diamonds from Dubai under the India-UAE trade agreement.

The think tank also suggested that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) extend the export credit period for cut and polished diamond exporters from six months to 12 months, as buyers are increasingly demanding longer credit terms. India’s strong foreign exchange reserves make this feasible.
The Indian diamond industry, which consists of over 7,000 companies — many of them small or medium enterprises — provides direct employment to about 1.3 million workers, with Surat alone employing nearly 8,00,000 people. The industry is also crucial for millions of indirect jobs in sectors like logistics, transport, and retail.

With the sector being such a vital part of India’s economy, immediate and coordinated efforts are needed to address its current challenges and ensure its long-term viability.

(With inputs from PTI)