In Q4 FY2024, India recorded an impressive 7.8%. The Reserve Bank of India had expected the growth momentum to continue this financial year as well.
Earlier this month, the RBI governor had projected a 7.1% growth in Q1, while the growth rate for the entire financial year FY2024-25 was projected to be at 7.2%. The central bank had attributed this potential robust growth to improved agricultural activity, sustained buoyancy in services activity, healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, thrust on capex by the government, visible signs of pick up in private investment, and improving prospects of global trade.
However, RBI’s growth projections for this financial year were slightly moderated due to lower-than-anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output.
As per ICRA, the sharp drop in GDP growth is primarily due to parliamentary elections and a contraction in government capital expenditure weakening urban consumer confidence. Another main cause could be the weakening urban consumer confidence, which reported a surprising downtick in the May and July 2024 rounds of the Central Bank’s Consumer Confidence Survey.
“The lingering impact of last year’s unfavourable monsoon and an uneven start to the 2024 monsoon prevented a broader improvement in rural sentiment. Lower volume growth combined with diminishing gains from commodity prices weighed upon the profitability of some of the industrial sectors. The heat wave also affected footfalls in various service sectors, even as it provided a significant boost to electricity demand,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.
Despite the Q1 slowdown, ICRA expects economic activity to pick up in the latter half of FY2025, projecting an overall GDP growth of 6.8% for the full year, with a potential to exceed 7% in the second half.
The agency expects decelerated growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) as well, easing to 5.7% in Q1 FY2025 from 6.3% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in industrial growth, which is predicted to moderate to 6.4% from 8.4%, along with slight reductions in the services sector's growth and a modest improvement in agricultural GVA.
The difference between GDP and GVA growth is expected to narrow to around 30 basis points (bps) in Q1 FY2025, down from 148 bps in the previous quarter, due to lower growth in net indirect taxes amid a rise in government subsidies.
ICRA's analysis indicates that industrial GVA growth is likely to moderate in Q1 FY2025, with a slowdown in manufacturing and construction offset by growth in electricity, mining, and quarrying. Additionally, a contraction in government and state capital expenditure, along with a significant drop in new project announcements, has contributed to the overall slowdown.
Manufacturing profit margins have also been under pressure due to rising global commodity prices and narrowing deflation in input costs, which, combined with slower growth in manufacturing output, suggests a deceleration in manufacturing GVA growth.
In the agricultural sector, GVA growth is projected to be modest at 1.0% in Q1 FY2025, amidst declining output from most rabi and summer crops and a deficient rainfall in June 2024.
With growing concerns around inflation and unemployment in India and across the world, the latest forecast could further fuel the fears around recession and slowdown in major economies.
However, a much clearer picture will emerge with the actual quarterly estimates of GDP for Q1 from the National Statistical Office (NSO) next week.
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