It said container lanes that account for about 40 per share in twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) will take a drastic hit.
"Global container trade is in for major disruption due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has hit major economies that account for around 55 per cent of the global gross domestic product (GDP) particularly hard," Crisil said in a report.
With the US and Europe severely affected, mainline east-west container lanes (Transpacific, Asia-Europe and Transatlantic lanes, which account for 40 per cent share in the twenty-foot equivalent unit or TEU volume) are expected to be drastically hit as the lockdown has significantly affected supply chains there, it said.
"Indeed, the crisis may be deeper than the one the industry experienced during the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008, given that the pandemic has caused a big drop in not just demand but also movement of people," the report said.
There will be a 30-40 per cent fall in container charter rate indices since the year's start, a 10-15 per cent decline in container throughput at Chinese ports during January-March, and increasing cancellations by liners and idle fleet, it added.
Crisil Research said it believed the extent to which the pandemic is controlled globally and, more importantly, the stance that major economies take towards imports will be critical to the pace of recovery in container trade post-2020.
However, given that COVID-19 has badly hurt economies and consumer sentiment, and there is likely to be an attitudinal shift against globalisation, a slow and gradual recovery in container trade seems more plausible, it said. NAM BAL