Peck's note also argues that Twitter has been without a CEO for too long - 100 days - and that it's time for the board to pick founder Jack Dorsey as the new chief. He wrote:
Over 100 Days is Too Long. Several weeks back, we thought the CEO search was finally coming to an end and that a decision was imminent - we were wrong. Conversations we had with industry participants indicated that Jack Dorsey was the most logical choice, particularly with no "superior" external candidate surfacing. We are stunned that we have now passed over 100 days since the announcement of the former CEO's resignation, particularly since the board had discussions with him about stepping down since Dec. 2014. Feedback we hear from investors is that the process has taken too long.
We sent a message to Twitter requesting comment but did not immediately hear back. We'll update this story when the company responds.
Twitter lost Dick Costolo as CEO earlier this year but did not name a replacement. Dorsey took over as interim CEO. The weird part about the search is that Dorsey and Costolo previously said Costolo's departure was planned, but the extended period of governance without a CEO suggests that picking a successor wasn't part of that plan. Most companies prefer to have a smooth, orderly transition of CEOs.
Some observers believe that the board is not convinced Dorsey is the best person for the job because he is also the CEO of Square, a payments company, which is about to go public.
Here's who tweets and owns TWTR stock, and who doesn't on the Twitter board, according to Peck:
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey
Peck builds a theory that a new CEO would be accompanied by a boardroom shuffle as well: "Based on this, we think 2 of the 8 board members, are more likely to move on: Peter Currie (leading the CEO search, low ownership
& activity) and Marjorie Scardino (low ownership & activity). We would look for the company to put more expertise on the board in media, tech, and operations," he concludes.
Of course, Currie and Scardino aren't alone. Millions of Twitter's "users" don't ever tweet. But in May, Twitter mysteriously stopped disclosing the percentage of its users who take "no discernable user action" on the app, making it harder for observers to figure out whether Twitter's core user base is growing or dying.
That's one of the problems the new CEO will be expected to fix.
Peck's chart caught the eye of Chris Sacca, one of Twitter's more vocal unhappy investors. (The stock has declined to $27 per share this year, losing about half its value.) He tweeted:
Most respected analyst on Twitter calls out the board and press is silent. Why? They fear offending their sources: https://t.co/HtfFEm9o1l
- Chris Sacca (@sacca) September 22, 2015
Writing the truth of how poorly the board has managed the Twitter CEO transition would ensure no more juicy leaks and scoops. So, silence.
- Chris Sacca (@sacca) September 22, 2015