Brexit is going to be really bad for the Scotch whisky industry
Companies such as Diageo, which owns the Johnnie Walker whisky brand, will experience a rapid increase customs tariffs, Macquarie said in a note to clients.
Leaving the EU would mean falling out of the 27-nation bloc's free trade agreements with other countries, hiking tariffs from 0% to 30% in markets like South Korea.
In India and Indonesia, the rate could increase to 150% according to Macquarie's table of tariffs.
"The Scotch industry relies on the UK's membership of several key trading agreements, all of which are directly or indirectly linked to EU membership, for protection from tariff and nontariff barriers to trade," Macquarie said.
Around 70% of Diageo's whisky exports could be affect, according to Macquarie.
Here is the chart:
"The UK leaving the EU Customs Union would be the most significant Brexit-related event for the Scotch industry in our view and could happen at any time. A number of influential UK Cabinet ministers believe that the UK needs to start negotiating new FTAs as soon as possible, which would require the UK to leave the EU Customs Union," Macquarie said in the note.
Here is the chart of non-FTA tariffs that could hit exports:
Andrea Leadsom, the secretary for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, unveiled a plan last month to put UK-made products, such as cider, whisky and biscuits, at the heart of a new trade strategy.
"Our food and drink is renowned for having the very best standards of animal welfare, quality and safety and I want even more of the world to enjoy what we have to offer," Leadsom said in a statement.
"Scottish salmon, Welsh beef, Northern Irish whiskey and English cheese are already well-known globally and I want us to build on this success by helping even more companies send their top quality food and drink abroad," Leadsom said.