BOOM: KEY DETAIL IN DURABLE GOODS REPORT EXPLODES

Orders decreased 5.2 percent, worse than expectations of a 4.8 percent decline.

The drop was led by orders for defense aircraft and parts.

However, nondefense orders excluding aircraft (core capex) rose 6.3 percent, way above expectations of no growth.

Durable goods orders excluding all transportation equipment rose 1.9 percent, exceeding expectations of a 0.2 percent gain.

Shipments of nondefense orders excluding aircraft and parts fell 1 percent. Economists predicted a 1.3 percent decline.

December data were revised down across the board, but the revisions don't even begin to offset the gains observed today.

"The standout within the report is rising demand for capital goods seen as a proxy for future business investment in the economy," wrote Miller Tabak Chief Economic Strategist Andrew Wilkinson in a note following the release. "The report confirms the improving health of the manufacturing sector, which we continue to feel is helping fuel demand across the remainder of the economy as rising business confidence translates into growth in investment activity."

The chart below, courtesy of Wilkinson, illustrates the surge in core capex:

Miller Tabak

Below is the full text from the release:

New Orders

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January decreased $11.8 billion or 5.2 percent to $217.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease, down following four consecutive monthly increases, followed a 3.7 percent December increase.

Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.4 percent.

Transportation equipment, down three of the last four months, drove the decrease, $14.7 billion or 19.8 percent to $59.7 billion. This was led by defense aircraft and parts, which decreased $5.1 billion.

Shipments

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in January, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.7 billion or 1.2 percent to $226.1 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent December increase.

Transportation equipment, down following two consecutive monthly increases, had the largest decrease, $1.6 billion or 2.3 percent to $64.7 billion. This followed a 0.8 percent December increase.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled ordersfor manufactured durable goods in January, down following four consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $989.2 billion. This decrease followed a 0.8 percent December increase.

Transportation equipment, also down following four consecutive monthly increases, drove the decrease, $5.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $582.8 billion.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, increased $0.7 billion or 0.2 percent to $374.8 billion. This increase followed a 0.1 percent December decrease.

Transportation equipment, up thirty consecutive months, drove the increase, $1.1 billion or 0.9 percent to $115.8 billion.

Capital Goods

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January decreased $0.1 billion or 0.1 percent to $72.2 billion.

Shipments decreased $1.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $70.5 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $586.2 billion. Inventories increased $1.5 billion or 0.9 percent to $174.1 billion.

Defense new orders for capital goods in January decreased $11.3 billion or 69.5 percent to $4.9 billion.

Shipments decreased $1.0 billion or 11.6 percent to $8.0 billion. Unfilled orders decreased $3.1 billion or 1.8 percent to $168.1 billion. Inventories increased $0.1 billion or 0.2 percent to $21.5 billion.

Revised December Data

Revised seasonally adjusted December figures for all manufacturing industries were: new orders, $483.4 billion (revised from $484.8 billion); shipments, $483.4 billion (revised from $484.9 billion); unfilled orders, $991.3 billion (revised from $991.7 billion); and total inventories, $614.9 billion (revised from $615.5 billion).

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