Gunnar Rathbun/AP Images for Walmart
A customer uses Walmart's app during Walmart's Black Friday event in Bentonville, Arkansas.
Adobe is basing its forecast on early results from the shopping holiday, which show that it brought in roughly $490 million in the first 8.5 hours of the 24-hour event.
Top selling electronics so far include iPads, Samsung 4K TVs, and LG TVs, according to Adobe. Best-selling toys include drones, mini vehicles for kids, and Lego sets.
Adobe's data also shows that people are shopping more than ever before from their smartphones. About 60% of site traffic and 40% of purchases are coming from mobile phones so far, Adobe said.
The surge in online sales this year has led Cowen & Co. analysts to re-brand Black Friday as "couch Friday" since so many people are shopping without leaving home.
Cowen & Co. expects shopper foot traffic in stores to fall 3.4% on Friday.
"We still expect negative traffic given earlier start this year of the holiday selling season and rise of mobile, which could be as much as 60% or more of all traffic, and consumer exhaustion from a saturated promotional environment," the analysts wrote in a note published Friday.
Thanksgiving Day online sales totaled $1.93 billion, which is slightly lower than expected but still represents 11.5% growth over last year.
Adobe attributed the slower growth on Thanksgiving to the start of Black Friday promotions before Thanksgiving by retailers like Target and Walmart.
Online sales on November 23 - the day before Thanksgiving - soared 19% to $1.57 billion.
BIQ Podcast: Black Friday is becoming a battle of values vs. values. Some stores open early with doorbuster deals; others are closing and advertising a commitment to family. Listen: