Bihar is going to tip India’s political scale

Ahead of the Bihar Legislative Assembly polls, the state has turned into a political warzone. Political analysts are having a field day, predicting the trends and possible alliances that would come by in the state. One year since the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed its NDA government, Bihar will serve as an important indicator for what is to come by as an imminent reaction to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government in the country.

For starters, the most important indicator that has emerged is the fact that the BJP will have to wage a different sort of war in this state. The Janata Parivar merger will prove to be a tough nut for the masterminds who engineered the 2014 general elections victory. BJP still hasn’t lost the plot. After all, Amit Shah now has 11 strong candidates from the NDA to choose. But, that isn’t going to be easy after the face-smacking debacle that the BJP suffered in Delhi elections.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has all plans to become a national party sooner than later. But, with Bihar, AAP would not like to test the choppy waters.

The regional parties, which saw being badly decimated and reduced to rubble in last year’s general elections, have come together; much to the discomfort of NDA. This would mean a tougher path ahead. Whether the alliance of Janata Parivar will make sense to people or not, is never the question. It is all about who has better reach and communication mechanism with the voters; and who can influence the voters to choose them over the others. The elections come at a time when the BJP’s popularity is seen declining in most crucial quarters. The large gap between promises and performance is seen as the most important reason for this. Though there was political unrest in Bihar in the recent times; there has also been an increasing anger among farmers about the least support they have got from the central government.

The hurried return of Nitish Kumar after unseating Jiten Ram Manjhi is bound to have its repercussions on the current results. Nitish suffered a humiliating defeat in the last polls despite having delivered on ‘progress’. This was seen as voters’ reaction to his snapping of ties with his longstanding association with the BJP.

With the 2010 elections, political analysts had concluded that the heavily-castetist Bihar is finally moving away from being a society that voted a particular caste to power, and not for better standard of lives. The BJP-JD(U) alliance was some sort of a rainbow of hope for the state that had somewhat tread the path of scams during the time of Lalu Prasad Yadav.

JD(U) – BJP had won 206 seats out of 243 total seats. Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) alliance was reduced to nothing with a loss of face, facing complete rejection at 25 seats only. But this was in 2010, even before the rest of India had begun to even speak the language of development. Did caste get a boot in these elections? Did Bihar show the tendency right then? The victory in this election is crucial for the Centre for various reasons. It will provide some kind of reassurance to the central government to keep the tempo up about Modi magic still being alive. Else, a lot of things can change at the Centre.

The BJP desperately needs this victory to up its numbers in Rajya Sabha where its developmental agenda alone is not cutting the ice. Since the party has no big numbers, its bills are taking the ordinance route and this can be perceived as a serious setback for the BJP’s assurance to keep up the values of democracy.

Bihar polls would also ensure the atmosphere is set for the UP polls that are due to take place in 2017. Would this mean the greatest political indicator of our times has already been perceived political analysts? The vital signs are all over the place to affirm this indicator.

What’s with the Janata Parivar merger? Though secular forces all over the country desire the coming together of secular forces, the NDA victory of 2014 bagging 31 out of 40 seats actually acted like a glue for Lalu and Nitish to come together. An unholy alliance, as it may be termed, the coming together of two contradictory and different forces should be tested against time depending on whether the voter places trust in them or not. Bihar, right now, is a cauldron. Only, we will know what's cooking in a few months.
(Image: The Times of India)