Barry Ritholtz, the brains behind the Big Picture blog, is out with his 2014 global market and economic forecasts, and they are brilliant.
From his U.S. forecasts:
| Category | Forecast |
| Dow Jones Industrials | No idea |
| S&P500 | WTF are you asking me for? |
| 10 Year Bond | Could not fathom a guess |
| Fed Fund Rates | Haven't a clue |
| US Housing Market | That's a really good question |
| Inflation | Not a clue |
| GDP | Yes, we will probably have a GDP |
| Unemployment | Thhhhpppptttt? |
| Possibility of Recession in 2014 | Possibility & Probability are 2 different things |
Okay, so what the heck is this about.
Well, it's obviously a joke.
However, the message is loud and clear: it's foolish to try to predict what'll happen in the near-term. More often than not, it's just a mentally-frustrating and money-losing exercise.
Sure, it's probably a good idea to make short-term, tactical adjustments to your portfolios if valuations scream opportunity. But, this should always be done in the context of your long-term, strategic investment plan.
So as you revisit your investments, keep Ritholtz's forecasts in mind.