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BARCLAYS: These 15 'top pick' European stocks have the potential to boom in price

Mike Bird   

BARCLAYS: These 15 'top pick' European stocks have the potential to boom in price
Finance5 min read

Dax bull Frankfurt

REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

A plastic bull figurine, symbol of the Frankfurt stock exchange is pictured in front of the German share price index DAX board at the Frankfurt stock exchange January 22, 2015.

Barclays just released its "Top Picks" for the first quarter, listing the shares it thinks have the biggest upside potential to surge in price.

The last three months have seen continued growth in the UK and the unexpected resurgence of Europe, as well as the European Central Bank's major quantitative easing scheme, and Barclays think there are still plenty of opportunities around.

These are the bank's top 15 picks for Europe, why they've been chosen, and how much they think the share price could rise by.

15. Glencore - UK-listed mining firm

The case: "The various strands to the Glencore investment case remain powerful, in our view. These are principally very strong earnings growth driven by volumes, most of which is coming at very attractive capital intensities, impressive cost reduction and intriguing supply/demand fundamentals over the next two to three years."

Potential stock value upside: +13%

14. Deutsche Telekom - German telecommunications firm

The case: "DTE has built mobile network leadership (speeds 2x faster than peers), which should enable it to maintain premium pricing and remain insulated from low-end competition."

Potential stock value upside: +14%

13. Solvay - Belgian Chemicals company

The case: "Solvay is both a growth and transformation story. A new, more focused company should enhance the quality of the group which, in turn, could lead to a higher valuation."

Potential stock value upside: +14%

12. Ashtead Group - UK industrial rental company

The case: "Ashtead has delivered strong earnings upgrades since 2011, driven largely by structural growth and self-help, with a cyclical recovery in non-residential construction really only beginning in the second half of 2014".

Potential stock value upside: +15%

11. JD Wetherspoon - UK pub chain

The case: "We believe that Wetherspoon dominates the value end of the pubs market. It continues to build its competitive advantage by investing in its business across all areas including the fabric of the assets, staff training, and product quality. This, along with pre-emptive increases in staff wages ahead of the National Minimum Wage, is causing weakness in the operating margin. That said, the company is always keen to show growth".

Potential stock value upside: +15%

10. Wolseley - UK-based building materials supplier

The case: "Wolseley's divisions have been heavily revised since Ian Meakins joined as CEO in 2009, leaving a collection of market leaders making good returns. Wolseley's US business is the clear market leader in the plumbing & heating market."

Potential stock value upside: +16%

9.) Credit Suisse Group - European investment bank

The case: "Credit Suisse replaces ING as our Top Pick among European banks. CS is making strong progress on capital and leverage, with substantial balance sheet reduction, and added impetus as new management take the reins. The reshaping should strengthen capital adequacy, and pave the way for dividend growth. Importantly it should also boost group returns on equity."

Potential stock value upside: +17%

8. Alcatel-Lucent - French telecommunications firm

The case: "Alcatel-Lucent offers a compelling combination of revenue growth and self-help that is not yet fully appreciated by the market, in our view. The next growth chapter will likely be driven by the networks migration towards a software-defined architecture which we believe Alcatel's product portfolio is well placed to benefit from relative to its European peers, given its strength in IP routing and platforms."

Potential stock value upside: +20%

7. Norilsck Nickel - Russian metals and mining

The case: "Norilsk Nickel is one of the most profitable diversified miners with a compelling commodity basket which has received a strong tailwind from the sharp devaluation of the Russian rouble. On top of a favourable set of external factors, the company is going through an internal efficiency turnaround and is committed to distributing at least 50% of EBITDA (a measure of earnings) in the form of dividends."

Potential stock value upside: +21%

6. Redrow - UK house builder

The case: "Unlike most of its house building peers, Redrow is continuing to invest in its future growth. As we believe that the housing cycle has a long way to run, our view is that this investment will be rewarded in the medium term. We believe this should be of interest to those that are happy to sacrifice near-term dividends in exchange for longer-term growth."

Potential stock value upside: +22%

5. Renault - French automaker

The case: "We see significant upside potential at Renault which remains our Top Pick in the European auto space. We think the market has unfairly penalised Renault due to its Russian exposure. Russia is clearly still an issue with volumes falling sharply over the year to date, but we think Russian earnings have already seen their steep decline."

Potential stock value upside: +23%

4. UCB - Belgian pharmaceuticals firm

The case: "We remain Overweight on UCB given its strong mix of top-line growth, margin leverage and corporate/pipeline optionality. It remains our Top Pick in EU Pharma with core franchises Vimpat, Cimzia and Neupro and operational efficiencies leading to a tripling of EBITDA (earnings) by 2018"

Potential stock value upside: +26%

3. Capgemini - French IT services and consulting

The case: "We argue that Capgemini will benefit both from positive estimate momentum (we are c.10% ahead of Bloomberg consensus) and an expanding valuation multiple as it continues its journey towards the 'international champions league'."

Potential stock value upside: +28%

2. Repsol - European oil company

The case: "Repsol's planned $12.9 billion takeover of Talisman Energy is set to transform both the geographic exposure and business mix of the group. In doing so Repsol is, in our view, close to completing a journey that started nearly three years ago with the expropriation of its assets in Argentina."

Potential stock value upside: +38%

1. Petrofac - London-listed oil services company

The case: "With backlog rebuilt, at a margin which we believe will still be industry leading, we feel that Petrofac is on course to deliver strong earnings growth over the 2015-17F period. In an uncertain macro environment, we believe Petrofac's strong backlog and high exposure to National Oil Companies (NOCs) will help to underpin our earnings forecasts."

Potential stock value upside: +42%

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