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BARCLAYS: Britain is 'on the cusp of recession'

Will Martin   

BARCLAYS: Britain is 'on the cusp of recession'

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Michal Osmenda/CC 2.0

Britain is battling against "spiralling uncertainty" and is now on track to slip into recession by the end of the year, according to the latest forecasts from bankers at Barclays.

In the bank's latest chartbook of economic indicators for the UK, economists Andrzej Szczepaniak and Fabrice Montagne discuss the path that lays in front of the British economy.

One word dominates that discussion: recession.

Barclays expects that the UK will slip into recession by the end of 2016, with growth falling by 0.1%, thanks to the massive uncertainty surrounding Britain after the country voted to leave the European Union in late June.

The Brexit vote caused the pound to crash, and plunged Britain into an unprecedented situation where the country simply doesn't know what its political or economic future will look like. That uncertainty will bash confidence, stunt investment, and generally just weaken the economic picture.

As Barclays notes: "We expect that spiralling uncertainty will adversely affect firm and household confidence, forcing them to be more cautious and hold back on spending, following the UK vote to leave the EU at the 23 June referendum."

The bank continues: "We expect the aforementioned spiralling uncertainty to push the UK economy into recession from H2 16. We forecast headline GDP growth will average -0.1% q/q in H2 16 and 2017, primarily due to a marked contraction in fixed investment, which had already been slowing in the run-up to the referendum (Figure 6). We believe it will contract in almost each quarter of our forecast horizon, resulting in an average of -0.5% q/q over H2 16 and 2017."

Essentially, things look very, very bad for Britain in the post-Brexit world, and Barclays has the charts to show it. Take a look at a handful of the most crucial charts below.

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