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BANK OF AMERICA: These 19 stats are all you need to understand markets right now
BANK OF AMERICA: These 19 stats are all you need to understand markets right now
Ben WinckSep 5, 2019, 01:12 IST
REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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A new Bank of America Merill Lynch report outlines the bank's bullishness toward risk assets in 2019, as well as its bearish shift for the following year.
The firm is constructive on risk assets through the end of 2019, citing low rates in response to the global tarde war.
Beyond that, BAML expects a "big top" in asset prices to arrive in 2020 when the bond bubble, recession fears and "policy impotence" threaten the global economy.
The firm outlines 19 key statistics crucial for anyone trying to understand markets right now.
A new report from Bank of America Merill Lynch highlights the bank's bullish stance through the rest of 2019 and bearish shift the following year.
Risk assets are poised to rally through the last months of 2019 as "bearish positioning and bullish monetary policy" outpace slowing macroeconomic growth, the bank's analysts said.
Their outlook on such assets turns sour for 2020, with recession fears, "policy impotence," and a growing bond bubble risking a ceiling for credit and equities. The analysts call this peak a "big top."
"Despite the trade war grabbing all the headlines in 2019, returns from equities, bonds and commodities have been incredibly strong as once again bearish positioning and bullish monetary policy have trumped the macro," the team led by Michael Hartnett said Tuesday.
Below are 19 key statistics helping to inform BAML's view. The firm says they're crucial for anyone trying to make sense of markets right now.
The S&P 500 level that would make the current US bull market the biggest of all-time. The country's economic expansion is already the longest on record.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
27%
The MSCI — formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International — global equity index sits this much lower from its 2007 peak, excluding the US equity market.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
17%
European financials as a segment of MSCI Europe, down from its 31% stake in January 2009.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
$5.4 trillion
The amount of US corporate spending on stock buybacks since 2009.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
$15 trillion
The amount of US corporate debt issued since 2009.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
$114
The amount US companies spent on stock buybacks since 2018 for every $100 invested in the real economy. The figure was $60 between 1998 and 2017.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
5.4
US private sector financial assets are more than 5.4 times the size of US GDP. The figure stood between 2.5 and 3.5 times from 1950 to 2000.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
731
The number of global interest rate cuts since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
$12.4 trillion
The amount of assets purchased by the big 5 central banks — Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank — since 2009.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
$17 trillion
The value of negative-yield bonds on the market. This is equal to 30% of all debt securities market value.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
$1 trillion
The value of all negative-yield corporate bonds.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
$325 billion
Inflows to bond funds globally in 2019. The rush to debt assets is on pace for a record year.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
0.2%
The average yield of the 10-year government debt of the US, UK, Japan, Switzerland, France, and Australia.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
1,100
The number of global stocks with dividend yields more than 300 basis points above the average global government bond yield.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
319%
The level of global debt compared to global GDP. This figure is nearing an all-time high.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
20 million people
The working population will decline by this many people in Japan, Russia, and Southern Europe between now and 2025.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
28%
The tech and e-commerce industries represent 28% of all US profits, a level usually associated with major sector peaks.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
3.4%
The unemployment rate in 11 US election battleground states. The figure is down from 4.4% since the 2016 presidential election.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
1969
The last year US tariffs on taxable imports hit 10.6%, the level they have jumped to in 2019.
