Bad news! Skymet may revise forecast, expects to rain less in July

In contrast to its earlier prediction, private weather forecaster Skymet stated it might revise its forecast as rains across country stood 32% below average.

Vice-president, meteorology at Skymet, GP Sharma said that by July-end, they might come with a revised forecast for the season and the months of August and September.

The forecaster had earlier forecast above normal monsoon rains this year while most other forecasters, including the official India Meteorological Department (IMD), predicted less than normal rains.

However, he said that Skymet would not bring its forecast down, adding that he didn't expect July rains to be 104% of normal as forecasted earlier.

"It will surely be in the minus side. But considering there is a margin error of ± 9 per cent in the monthly forecast, we are not wrong in our forecast," Sharma told Economic Times.

The financial daily reported that as of July 15, the monthly monsoon rains across the country were 32% below average while the deficit for the whole season stood at 6%.

Skymet says that monsoon rains will be 102% of its Long Period Average (LPA) this year, whereas IMD predicted only 88% of the average.

"Northwestern India is the only region which has a cumulative rain surplus till now. We expect some improvement in the second half of July, but the deficit will prevail,” DS Pai, head of long-range forecasting at IMD, told ET.

IMD is expected to release its next forecast on July 31. It has forecast July rainfall over the country to be 92% of its LPA.

"Rainfall deficit for the country in July is 44 mm. We should get 12-13 mm rain daily to catch up with the normal," Skymet's Sharma told ET.

He added that monsoons could spring a surprise anytime. "Heavy widespread monsoon showers for a few days can wipe out the deficit as happened in the previous year. Monsoon rains were 40% below normal across India till July 15 in 2014 and with spell of heavy rains the deficit came down to 22% by the month end," Sharma told the financial daily.

Meanwhile, Skymet expects August rains to be 99% of the average with good rainfall in the first ten days of the month.

(Image: Indiatimes)