<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56e3228b910584cc008b5e97-5120-3840/rtx28mxm.jpg" alt="Obama Kerry podium, Feb 2016" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Carlos Barria" data-mce-caption="President Obama arrives to deliver a statement after meeting with the National Security Council at the State Department in Washington, D.C., February 25, 2016." /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Carlos Barria</span></p><p class="caption">President Barack Obama arrives to deliver a statement after meeting with the National Security Council at the State Department in Washington, DC, on February 25.</p></div><p></p></div></div>There's an interesting subplot running through <a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/">Jeffrey Goldberg's landmark Atlantic magazine report</a> on US President Barack Obama's foreign policy: the constant and apparently continuing tension between the president and the man charged with implementing his foreign-policy vision.</p><p>Throughout his article, Goldberg reported of several instances in which Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have been at odds.</p><p>For one, Kerry was not at the August 30, 2013, meeting in which Obama opted not to order a military strike on the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.</p><p>That came in the aftermath of the regime's use of chemical weapons outside Damascus. Kerry gave a speech advocating a strike earlier that day, but was not informed of the president's decision until the night of the meeting.</p><p><span>"'I just got f----- over,' [Kerry] told a friend shortly after talking to the president that night," Goldberg wrote.</span></p><p>But the more notable source of disagreement is the secretary of state's continued advocacy for strikes against Assad regime targets. Goldberg reported that "ov<span class="smallcaps">er the past year</span><span>, John Kerry has visited the White House regularly to ask Obama to violate Syria's sovereignty. On several occasions, Kerry has asked Obama to launch missiles at specific regime targets, under cover of night, to 'send a message' to the regime."</span></p><p><span>Kerry believes that US military strikes would convince Assad to take peace negotiations in the country more seriously, according to Goldberg. </span></p><p><span>"A few cruise missiles, Kerry has argued, might concentrate the attention of Assad and his backers," Goldberg reported.</span></p><p>Kerry's efforts have put him at odds with Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, according to the reporter.</p><p>"<span>Obama has steadfastly resisted Kerry's requests, and seems to have grown impatient with his lobbying," Goldberg wrote. </span>"Recently, when Kerry handed Obama a written outline of new steps to bring more pressure to bear on Assad, Obama said, 'Oh, another proposal?'"</p><p>Meanwhile, Obama has "announced that no one except the secretary of defense should bring him proposals for military action," something understood within the Defense Department as "a brushback pitch directed at Kerry."</p><p>This is more than just a standard policy disagreement. For the past several months, Kerry has been charged with leading <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/12/21/negotiating-the-whirlwind">a somewhat quixotic international attempt</a> at reaching a negotiated solution to Syria's 5-year-old civil war, an effort that's so far yielded <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/peace-deal-gives-russia-and-assad-a-license-to-kill-2016-2">a fragile and loophole-riddled "cessation of hostilities."</a></p><p>As Goldberg detailed, Kerry doesn't believe that his effort can be successful without some added pressure on the Assad regime, which has had its position strengthened through Russia's late 2015 military intervention on the regime's behalf.</p><p>It isn't just that Kerry believes the US has some kind of moral or strategic imperative to weaken Assad's government. He also appears to think that one of his primary objectives as secretary of state is all but unachievable without a greater US willingness to confront Assad, even if it's through direct military force.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5630e1bbbd86ef775d8ba4a3-2768-1773/rtx5qer.jpg" alt="Assad Hezbollah" data-mce-source="Khaled al-Hariri/Reuters" data-mce-caption="A demonstrators hold up a flag of Lebanese Hezbollah and a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad during a demonstration to mark the 60th anniversary of &amp;quotNakba&quot; in Damascus May 15,2008." /><p class="source"><span>Khaled al-Hariri/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A demonstrator holds up a flag of Lebanese Hezbollah and a picture of Syrian President Bashar Assad during a demonstration to mark the 60th anniversary of Nakba in Damascus on May 15, 2008.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>As secretary of state, Kerry negotiated the nuclear agreement with Iran and spearheaded an <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/118751/how-israel-palestine-peace-deal-died">unsuccessful effort</a> to reach a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.</p><p>Kerry has been at the forefront of Obama's riskiest and most controversial moves on the international stage. If Iran tests a nuclear weapon or the Assad regime remains in power a decade from now, those developments will reflect back on Kerry's legacy as well as Obama's.</p><p>But on one of the most crucial questions of the Syrian civil war, Kerry's impressive record of carrying out some of the administration's biggest gambles hasn't won him all that much trust or goodwill.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-obama-democrat-nomination-michigan-2016-3">Here's how Bernie Sanders could win the presidential nomination - it won't be easy</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="VrMGN0MTE6LfqDzi9BEkuBcUBeXtIOu2" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'VrMGN0MTE6LfqDzi9BEkuBcUBeXtIOu2',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

A new report paints some striking differences between Obama and John Kerry on foreign policy

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56e23f7352bcd066018b5a82-1885-1414/gettyimages-514692922.jpg" alt="Donald Trump cnn debate" data-mce-source="Joe Raedle/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="Donald Trump." /><p class="source"><span>Joe Raedle/Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">Donald Trump.</p></div><p></p></div></div>The Thursday-night Republican presidential debate once again touched on frontrunner Donald Trump's statement that he <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-israel-stance-palestine-2016-2">would take a more "neutral" approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict</a>.</p><p>In this edition, Republican voters got a slightly more expanded view of what that might actually mean.</p><p>"I'm a negotiator," Trump said when pressed on whether the US should continue to support the Palestinian Authority, which is accused of inciting terrorism after a Palestinian attacker allegedly <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/vanderbilt-student-taylor-force-named-as-us-victim-of-jaffa-terror-attack/">killed a US Army veteran in Israel earlier this week</a>.</p><p>"I would like to at least have the other side think I'm somewhat neutral as to them so that we can maybe get a deal done," he said of a possible Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. </p><p>"I think it's probably the toughest negotiation or all time," he added. "But maybe we can get a deal done."</p><p>In contrast, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio argued against attempting to pressure Israel into peace negotiations, saying it could take as long as "30 years" before conditions for peace were in place.</p><p>Trump clearly wants to make an Israeli-Palestinian peace push a major part of his foreign policy.</p><p>"If I become president, one of the things that will be an absolute priority is protection of Israel, but also seeing if a deal can be made," he said.</p><p>His answer was missing two things, however. First, Trump didn't try to argue that the US or the Middle East would derive any actual benefit from his attempts at reaching an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. And he didn't even try to explain what those attempts would actually consist of.</p><p>Would Trump use the US' <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/11/politics/us-foreign-aid-report/">$3.1 billion in annual military aid</a> to Israel as negotiating leverage? Would his administration publicly state its expectations as to what a final border between Israel and a future Palestinian state would look like, something that Israeli leaders have always feared could undermine their negotiating position?</p><p>Would Trump push for a halt in Israeli settlements beyond the ceasefire lines reached after the 1948 Middle East War as an inducement for a reluctant Palestinian leadership?</p><p>Trump's answer suggests that he hasn't really thought through any of these questions. He seems to view the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as a possible measurement of his negotiating skills and an arena for proving his prowess as a dealmaker.</p><p>The issue seems to have little tangible connection to Middle East tranquility, or the US's global credibility. For Trump, a peace agreement is "the toughest deal of any kind no matter where you look or how you look. But I would love to give it a shot."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-nevada-concession-speech-democrat-2016-2">Sanders predicts he'll win the democratic nomination in one of the great 'political upsets in the history of the US' </a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="tvNjU0MTE6xGuNZiaWFAl1mVH93pBOAx" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'tvNjU0MTE6xGuNZiaWFAl1mVH93pBOAx',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

Donald Trump sounds like he really wants a chance to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/563d5b049dd7cc04308bcdc2-500-334/putin_lesin.jpg" alt="putin and mikhail lesin" data-mce-source="Wikimedia/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office" data-mce-caption="Vladimir Putin shakes hands for Mikhail Lesin, Russia's former Press Minister, in an undated photograph." data-link="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Putin_Lesin.jpg" /><p class="source"><span><a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Putin_Lesin.jpg">Wikimedia/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office</a></span></p><p class="caption">Vladimir Putin shakes hands for Mikhail Lesin, Russia's former Press Minister, in an undated photograph.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Mikhail Lesin's November 2015 death in a Washington, DC, hotel was already mysterious.</p><p>The <a href="http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/the-mysterious-death-of-the-man-behind-putins-media-machine/548764.html">former Russian press minister</a> and founder of the English-language television network Russia Today had been one of the chief architects of the Kremlin's public messaging. That was before Lesin quit as head of state-owned Gazprom Media amid an internal power struggle, and a US money-laundering investigation probing the media mogul's American investments.</p><p>RT <a href="https://www.rt.com/news/321121-lesin-dies-heart-attack/">attributed Lesin's death to a heart attack</a>. But his mere presence in the US capital amid historic levels of tension between Washington and Moscow, and in light of the federal investigation into his finances, suggested that he<a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/01/10/was-putin-s-media-chief-ready-to-snitch-before-he-dropped-dead.html"> may have been ready to cooperate with US authorities</a> against some of his former colleagues in the Kremlin.</p><p>Thursday brought new developments into the circumstances surrounding Lesin's death. The Washington Post reported on Thursday that the Washington, DC, medical examiner's office determined Lesin had died of "<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/former-aide-to-russian-president-died-of-blunt-force-trauma-to-head-medical-examiner/2016/03/10/8a61dc16-e702-11e5-bc08-3e03a5b41910_story.html?postshare=6401457645663534&amp;tid=ss_tw">blunt-force trauma to the head</a>." The report also said he<span> "<span>suffered injuries to his neck, body, and upper and lower extremities." </span></span></p><p><span><span>The incident adds to a number of high-profile suspicious deaths tied to powerful Russian figures. They include the former deputy prime minister, Boris Nemtsov, who was <a href="http://www.newsweek.com/2015/04/03/who-really-killed-boris-nemtsov-315705.html">killed just a few hundred yards from the Kremlin's walls</a> in February 2015, and Alexander Litvinenko, a former KGB agent who <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/19/alexander-litvinenko-the-man-who-solved-his-own-murder">received a lethal polonium dose from a Russian operative</a> in London in 2006. </span></span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/54fa061c5afbd3f3318b4567-800-563/nemtsovs-friends-ask-where-were-the-police-when-he-was-shot--2015-3.jpg" alt="A portrait of Kremlin critic Boris Nemtsov and flowers are pictured at the site where he was killed on February 27, with St. Basil's Cathedral seen in the background, at the Great Moskvoretsky Bridge in central Moscow March 6, 2015.  REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov " data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="A portrait of Kremlin critic Nemtsov and flowers are pictured at the site where he was killed on February 27, with St. Basil's Cathedral seen in the background, at the Great Moskvoretsky Bridge in central Moscow" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">A portrait of Kremlin critic Nemtsov and flowers are pictured at the site where he was killed on February 27, with St. Basil's Cathedral seen in the background, at the Great Moskvoretsky Bridge in central Moscow</p></div><p></p></div></div><span><span></span></span><span><span> "<span>Mr. Litvinenko's killing ... was primarily about silencing critics and scaring opponents rather than eliminating one man," <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/opinion/who-needs-assassins-when-youve-got-hackers.html">New York University professor Mark Galeotti</a> wrote in The New York Times after the January publication of a British government investigation blaming Kremlin agents for Litvinenko death. "Moscow has realized that in the age of the Internet and 24-hour news cycles, there are safer ways of doing the same thing." </span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span>In Lesin's case, family members told Russian media that they believed he had suffered a heart attack, according to The Washington Post. <span>Dustin Sternbeck, the DC police department's chief spokesman, told reporters that the case remains under investigation, according to The Post.</span></span></span></span></p><p> </p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/400-billion-warplane-problems-america-f-35-2016-3">America's $400 billion warplane is experiencing another major problem</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="RkNnlzMTE6ivYm-ho_I_2OwBO8qjGS5n" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'RkNnlzMTE6ivYm-ho_I_2OwBO8qjGS5n',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

A former top aide to Vladimir Putin died of 'blunt force trauma' at a DC hotel

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56cdb0715124c9897b8b4567-800-587/obama-says-wants-top-court-justice-with-independent-mind-urges-senate-action.jpg" alt="U.S. President Barack Obama discusses administration plans to close the Guantanamo military prison while delivering a statement at the White House in Washington February 23, 2016.  REUTERS/Carlos Barria " data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="U.S. President Obama delivers statement on plans to close the Guantanamo military prison at the White House in Washington " /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">US President Barack Obama delivers a statement at the White House in Washington, DC, on plans to close the Guantanamo Bay military prison.</p></div><p></p></div></div>A definitive detailing of US President Barack Obama's foreign policy shows how much the president's thinking has changed from the hope-centric rhetoric of his early days in office.</p><p><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/">In an interview with The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg</a>, the president contended that while the US should still promote democracy and human rights, it's hamstrung by the fact that the world is "complicated," "messy," and "mean."</p><p>Goldberg's story offers an intimate glimpse into Obama's foreign-policy worldview. The president talked through how he approaches major international challenges with a remarkable degree of candor.</p><p>But some of the most revealing parts of Goldberg's story have to do with Obama's outlook on the state of the world and humanity in general.</p><p>It's unusual for a sitting president to give such a raw blow-by-blow assessment of his time in office, as Obama does in the course of discussing his decision not to go after the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad after an August 2013 chemical-weapons attack. But Obama's willingness to delve into the nature of reality and human existence is perhaps even more disarming.</p><p>At one point, Obama explained his view on what he believes American power is incapable of accomplishing, despite its world-spanning reach and unmatched military and economic scope. The president described himself as an "internationalist" and an "idealist," while identifying aspects of the human experience that inherently limit any nation's success in reshaping the world.</p><p><span>"I am very much the internationalist, and I am also an idealist insofar as I believe that we should be promoting values, like democracy and human rights and norms and values," Obama told Goldberg.</span></p><p><span><span>"I also believe that the world is a tough, complicated, messy, mean place, and full of hardship and tragedy," the president continued, explaining that "in order to advance both our security interests and those ideals and values that we care about, we'</span></span><span><span>ve got to be hardheaded at the same time as we're bighearted."</span></span></p><p><span><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/564cb7b76bb3f7ac5c2d62ff-2200-1620/rtx1387p.jpg" alt="Obama and Putin" data-mce-source="REUTERS/Grigory Dukor" /><p class="source"><span>REUTERS/Grigory Dukor</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></span></span></p><p><span><span>The statement is a far cry from the optimism of Obama's 2008 campaign, the ambitious rhetoric of his <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-cairo-university-6-04-09">2009 speech to the Muslim world in Cairo</a>, or, more recently, his <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/nelson-mandela-president-obama-speech-transcript-100932_Page2.html">soaring 2013 eulogy</a> for former South African President Nelson Mandela.</span></span></p><p><span><span> After two terms in office - a period that's seen the rise of one of history's most vicious terrorist groups in ISIS, the return of Cold War-era power dynamics in Eastern Europe, and the Syria conflagration - Obama has a foreign-policy outlook grounded in a sense of what's possible in spite of the essentially complicated and messy nature of the world. </span></span></p><p><span><span><a href="http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/">Throughout Goldberg's article</a>, based on hours of interviews with the president, Obama offered little of the rhetoric of transformation that characterized the outset of his presidency. In 2016, Obama defers to what he sees as the inherent limitations of his position.</span></span></p><p><span><span>At the same time, Obama did not give off the image of being totally disillusioned by reality. The world may be "full of hardship and tragedy," as he said. But Obama still appeared to hold an inevitably positive perception of human nature.</span></span></p><p>"Look, I am not of the view that human beings are inherently evil," Obama told Goldberg. "I believe that there's more good than bad in humanity. And if you look at the trajectory of history, I am optimistic."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-vs-rubio-water-bottle-rally-2016-2">Trump and Rubio are trying to one-up each other with these incredible insults </a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="5xYXNkMTE6RCsXHxIN1TffJXW30z1aRz" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', '5xYXNkMTE6RCsXHxIN1TffJXW30z1aRz',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

'The world is a tough, complicated, messy, mean place': Obama explains his foreign policy

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/568e7fc9c08a80492c8b5ef9-2200-1606/rtr1rdk3.jpg" alt="Saudi Arabia riyal" data-mce-source="Reuters/Ali Jarekji" data-mce-caption="A man holds a 50 riyal ($13.3) note, which shows the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem old city and Saudi's King Abdullah, in Riyadh." data-link="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ5IEVF_N&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1181&amp;RH=850#/SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ5IEVF_N&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1181&amp;RH=850&amp;PN=2&amp;POPUPPN=85&amp;POPUPIID=2C04082EP1SNB" /><p class="source"><span><a href="http://pictures.reuters.com/C.aspx?VP3=SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ5IEVF_N&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1181&amp;RH=850#/SearchResult&amp;VBID=2C0BXZ5IEVF_N&amp;SMLS=1&amp;RW=1181&amp;RH=850&amp;PN=2&amp;POPUPPN=85&amp;POPUPIID=2C04082EP1SNB">Reuters/Ali Jarekji</a></span></p><p class="caption">A man holds a 50 riyal ($13.3) note, which shows the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem old city and Saudi's King Abdullah, in Riyadh.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Saudi Arabia needs more cash.</p><p>According to The Wall Street Journal, the world's <a href="http://money.cnn.com/interactive/news/economy/worlds-biggest-oil-producers/">second-largest oil producer</a> is <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-seeks-to-raise-up-to-8-billion-loan-1457534170">looking for an $8 billion loan</a> from international banks. As The Journal reported, the country ran a record $100 billion deficit in 2015, largely because of the sharp decline in oil prices.</p><p>Over the past few months, Saudi Arabia has adjusted to low oil prices by following a strategy that seems primarily aimed at avoiding production cuts.</p><p>Riyadh has <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35188807">implemented new taxes</a>, <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/02/03/tumbling-oil-prices-are-wiping-out-saudi-arabias-progress-on-austerity/">cut funding</a> for social programs, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-is-worried-about-the-future-2016-1">prepared to sell off parts of Saudi Aramco</a>, the country's multi-trillion-dollar state oil concern. The moves are meant to cushion the long-term effects of lagging oil revenue without requiring any deeper cuts.</p><p>At the same time, this new fiscal strategy, along with Saudi Arabia's <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21685475-possible-ipo-saudi-aramco-could-mark-end-post-war-oil-order-sale">uniquely low break-even price for oil</a>, allows the country to continue pumping at <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-16/saudi-arabia-and-russia-agree-oil-output-freeze-in-qatar-talks">unprecedented rates</a>. This approach preserves Saudi Arabia's leadership position in determining global production and price and cuts into the oil revenue of Iran, Riyadh's top regional foe - all without seeming to pose any kind of long-term threat to the country's bottom line.</p><p>The trouble is that oil is so cheap. And Saudi Arabia's various regional policies are so expensive that the country apparently needs an additional line of funding on top of its various tax increases and sell-offs. Saudi Arabia is looking to borrow substantial amounts of money <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-seeks-to-raise-up-to-8-billion-loan-1457534170">for the first time in more than a decade</a>, according to The Wall Street Journal, because it's following a set of policies that require a measure of fiscal stability.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56e0b03a52bcd025008b5532-633-289/screen shot 2016-03-09 at 6.21.03 pm.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016 03 09 at 6.21.03 PM" data-mce-source="Investing.com" data-mce-caption="Oil price since October of 2015" data-link="http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil" /><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil">Investing.com</a></span></p><p class="caption">Oil price since October of 2015</p></div><p></p></div></div>Right now, Saudi Arabia is leading a multi-national Arab coalition that's attempting to restore Yemen's internationally recognized government, which Iranian-backed Houthi rebels overthrew in early 2015. The military effort has stalled, and is <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-glass-house-of-saud/2016/01/05/47583676-b3f0-11e5-9388-466021d971de_story.html">widely considered to have been a strategic blunder</a>.</p><p>Saudi Arabia was the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/09/saudi-arabia-becomes-worlds-biggest-arms-importer">world's largest arms importer in 2014</a> and had the world's <a href="https://www.iiss.org/-/media//images/publications/the%20military%20balance/milbal2016/mb%202016%20top%2015%20defence%20budgets%202015.jpg?la=en">third-largest defense budget</a> in 2015. In February, Saudi Arabia held what was reported to be <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-arabia-just-launched-a-massive-military-exercise-2016-2">one of the largest military exercises in the country's history</a>. ISIS has <a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/08/06/Timeline-Al-Qaeda-and-ISIS-attacks-in-Saudi-Arabia.html">attacked Saudi Arabia repeatedly</a><u> </u>over the past year, while Riyadh is also engaged in a high-stakes military and diplomatic faceoff with Iran that's forced it to essentially <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/how-saudi-arabia-pulled-a-proxy-out-from-under-irans-wing-2016-1">purchase the loyalty</a> of some of its allies.</p><p>Saudi Arabia is beginning to see the geopolitical limitations of its oil strategy.</p><p>The country can afford to produce at a level that's guaranteed to keep prices low. But the cost of covering the country's budgetary needs becomes steeper the longer oil remains in a price trough. And the costs become steeper the longer Saudi Arabia maintains such a confrontational regional stance - a strategy that might actually explain oil's low price in the first place.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-is-afraid-of-girls-2016-2">ISIS is afraid of girls - here's why</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="UwdGNneTq0kUXLKgFu5ScZhpSOIsdBbl" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'UwdGNneTq0kUXLKgFu5ScZhpSOIsdBbl',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

Here's the latest sign of just how huge of a risk Saudi Arabia has been taking

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/550c0acc6da8117c32788686-3500-2679/rtr3fg0u.jpg" alt="obama netanyahu" data-mce-source="Reuters" data-mce-caption="US President Barack Obama meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, September 30, 2013." /><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">US President Barack Obama meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House on September 30, 2013.</p></div><p></p></div></div>President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are in the midst of yet another public conflict.</p><p>Earlier this week, the Israeli prime minister announced that he was <a href="http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.707495">canceling a planned trip to the US</a> because of the limited window in which it would have been possible for him to meet with Obama.</p><p>Netanyahu was supposed to address the annual policy conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. Meanwhile, Obama leaves for a historic visit to Cuba on March 18.</p><p>Neither side disputes that a meeting could have taken place before Obama's departure to Cuba. Instead, the Israeli side apparently decided that it wasn't interested in a meeting.</p><p>In past disputes, each side at least had a clear motivation for not wanting to talk. Obama didn't meet with Netanyahu during the latter's trip to the US.</p><p>That included the prime minister's <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/03/03/full-text-netanyahus-address-to-congress/">controversial March 2015 speech</a> to a joint session of Congress urging opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. It was perhaps an obvious decision, given Netanyahu's use of a Republican-controlled legislature to speak out against one of the president's top priorities.</p><p>Netanyahu's relationship with Obama has soured over a range of issues. There is the Iran deal. There is Israeli settlement activity beyond the ceasefire lines determined after the 1948 Middle East war. And there is Netanyahu's <a href="http://news.yahoo.com/obama-rips-netanyahu-over-arab-voter-comments-042230721.html">alleged use of racially divisive rhetoric</a> during Israel's 2015 election campaign.</p><p>At the same time, the relationship has shown recent evidence of stabilizing - perhaps even recovering.</p><p>Netanyahu and Obama <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/in-meeting-with-netanyahu-obama-has-foreign-and-domestic-concerns/2015/11/11/7db5f576-8896-11e5-be8b-1ae2e4f50f76_story.html">met at the White House</a> last November, in what was seen as a successful attempt to publicly patch up the sides' differences after a protracted debate over the Iran deal. And there are some relatively urgent reasons Netanyahu should want to meet Obama in the coming weeks.</p><p>Israel and the US are currently negotiating a <a href="http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel/diplomacy-defense/99203-160115-israel-us-finalizing-10-year-memorandum-of-understanding-on-defense-ties">memorandum of understanding</a> that will help determine the next decade of US military assistance to the country.</p><p>Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Obama <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-working-on-renewed-mideast-peace-push-1457389793">wants to take one more shot</a> at advancing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process before he leaves office, an effort that The Journal reported could include the US endorsement of a UN Security Council resolution outlining a final-status outcome to the conflict.</p><p>From Israel's perspective, such a move would unacceptably coerce concessions outside the context of direct negotiations with the Palestinians. A meeting with Obama later this month would have been a crucial first step in staving off such a worst-case scenario.</p><p>Instead, the sides are mired in one of the strangest episodes of the entire Obama-Netanyahu saga - one that has no apparent precedent.</p><p>"T<span>here is no public record of an Israeli prime minister ever previously rejecting an invite to meet a president at the White House," <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahus-unprecedented-snub-of-obama-meeting-defies-explanation/">writes Raphael Ahren of The Times of Israel</a>. "And it is so bizarre as to leave even veteran analysts of the often-fraught bilateral relationship flabbergasted."</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56e091a291058425008b54c9-4233-2821/israel syria border.jpg" alt="Israel syria border" data-mce-source="Baz Ratner/Reuters" data-mce-caption="Israeli soldiers walk towards the border with Syria, near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan Heights on February 18, 2016." /><p class="source"><span>Baz Ratner/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Israeli soldiers walk toward the border with Syria, near the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled side of the Golan Heights, on February 18.</p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p><span>It's entirely possible that the meeting was canceled over something as innocent as a scheduling conflict - albeit one that played out in unfortunately public fashion. </span></p><p><span>During a Tuesday <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/03/08/press-briefing-press-secretary-josh-earnest-382016">press conference</a>, White House press secretary Josh Earnest emphasized that the meeting's cancellation would have no effect on the state of relations between the two allies. But he said that it would have been "just good manners" for the Israelis to have informed the White House of Netanyahu's change in plans rather than airing them in the media first.</span></p><p>Netanyahu hasn't proven quite this tactless in his recent diplomatic outreach.</p><p>In September, Israel <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-israel-idUSKCN0RL10K20150921">reached an understanding with Russia</a> that de-conflicted the country's aircraft over Syria while granting Israel continued freedom of operation over its northern neighbor - something that allowed for the <a href="http://www.timesofisrael.com/samir-kuntar-said-killed-in-israeli-strike/">December bombing in Damascus</a> that killed high-level Hezbollah operative Samir Kuntar.</p><p>ISIS and its aligned forces have been largely kept away from the Syrian-Israeli border, arguably the result of <a href="http://jonathanspyer.com/2016/03/06/how-israel-navigated-through-the-hurricane-of-the-syrian-civil-war/">careful Israeli policy regarding the Syrian civil war</a>. And in December, Israel <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/18/world/middleeast/israel-turkey-mavi-marmara-gaza.html?_r=0">reached a "preliminary agreement" with Turkey</a> that paves the way for the restoration of full diplomatic relations between the two countries.</p><p>Netanyahu's inattention in Israel's relations with the US might show that Israel's priorities simply lie elsewhere at the moment. After years of regional turmoil and the possible changes brought on by the Iran nuclear deal, the Israeli prime minister perhaps just can't be bothered to manage his relationship with the country's top foreign ally.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/jews-and-arabs-kissing-on-camera-2016-1">Israel banned a book featuring an Arab-Jew romance, so Arabs and Jews responded by kissing on camera</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="Q4M3QyMDE6CAJTERx79dlz3S23nbJTO2" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'Q4M3QyMDE6CAJTERx79dlz3S23nbJTO2',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

The US and Israel are now in one of their most baffling disputes yet

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/567476d672f2c18b108b6c9b-3852-2447/rts2kvz.jpg" alt="putin" data-mce-source="Reuters/Yuri Kochetkov" data-mce-caption="An honor guard opens the door as Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) enters a hall to attend a meeting with members of the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, October 1, 2015." /><p class="source"><span>Reuters/Yuri Kochetkov</span></p><p class="caption">An honor guard opens the door as Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) enters a hall to attend a meeting with members of the Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, October 1, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div>One of the major characteristics of Russian president Vladimir Putin's post-Ukraine crisis decision-making has been his willingness to use his military as a blunt instrument of the Kremlin's policy.</p><p>Between a multi-billion-dollar military modernization push, expensive and high-profile new weapons development, and military operations in Syria and Ukraine, Putin has attempted to project conventional military strength while demonstrating an actual willingness to use force.</p><p>But there's one big problem: The Kremlin just can't sustain its current level of military investment.</p><p>According to Reuters, Russia plans on <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-defense-budget-idUSKCN0W80TL">slashing its military budget by 5% in 2016</a>. This would be a notable number in any era, and constitutes the largest cut in defense spending in Putin's presidency. It's especially important in light of Russia's current roster of very expensive military policies.</p><p>At the moment, Russia is <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/graphic-shows-weapons-of-pak-fa-2016-2">developing a fifth-generation fighter jet</a>, building its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/first-ever-footage-of-russias-new-battle-tank-firing-its-main-cannon-2016-1">massive T-14 Armata main battle tank</a>, and procuring new war ships and submarines. Russia is undertaking <a href="http://thediplomat.com/2015/06/putin-to-press-on-with-russias-military-modernization/">a reported $400 billion military modernization push</a>, and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-russias-militarization-of-arctic-2015-8">constructing a string of bases across the Arctic Circle</a>.</p><p>Moscow is <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/23/russian-cluster-bombs-killed-hundreds-civilians-syria-watchdog">carrying on an air campaign</a> in support of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, sustaining the separatist rebellion in eastern Ukraine, and <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11609783/Mapped-Just-how-many-incursions-into-Nato-airspace-has-Russian-military-made.html">waging incursions</a> into NATO and allied waters and airspace, a campaign that's involved the largest presence of Russian submarines in the north Atlantic <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-submarine-activity-in-the-north-atlantic-is-at-cold-war-levels-2016-2">since the end of the Cold War</a>.</p><p>Russia is replenishing its hardware, and frequently turning to its military to implement its foreign policy.</p><p>Yet the country's economic situation requires deep cuts in military spending at a time when the Kremlin can least afford it.</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5547d5e3ecad045c15cb39b2-5301-3534/ap858429842451.jpg" alt="Armata Tank T-14 Russia" data-mce-source="Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP" data-mce-caption="Russian military vehicles including the new Russian T-14 Armata tank, center, make their way to Red Square during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade which will take place at Moscow's Red Square on May 9 to celebrate 70 years after the victory in WWII, in Moscow, Russia, Monday, May 4, 2015." /><p class="source"><span>Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP</span></p><p class="caption">Russian military vehicles including the new Russian T-14 Armata tank, center, make their way to Red Square during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade which will take place at Moscow's Red Square on May 9 to celebrate 70 years after the victory in WWII, in Moscow, Russia, Monday, May 4, 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div>The cuts only underscore just how dire Russia's economic situation is at the moment. </p><p>Last year, the Russian economy <a href="http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/01/25/russian-gdp-contracted-3-7-in-2015/">contracted 3.7%</a> in the face of international sanctions, plunging oil prices, and a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ruble-collapsing-2014-12">ruble valuation crisis</a>. The country's expected to remain in an economic trough this year as well, with expectations of the economy <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-defense-budget-idUSKCN0W80TL">contacting an additional 1% this year</a>, according to Reuters.</p><p>Putin's challenge is to sustain an aggressive foreign policy that has been at the core of his popular appeal - despite the political and economic cost of propping Bashar al-Assad, or cleaving off parts of eastern Ukraine.</p><p>The cut in defense spending exposes one of the biggest contradictions in Putin's policies. Putin's influence and appeal are rooted in military expansion and adventurism - but this approach leaves the country more isolated and less capable of sustaining a military in the first place.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-military-advanced-2016-2">Russia's military is more advanced than people thought</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="tpOHA3eDqptnNGLAX3VBir8g-0kNXHbv" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'tpOHA3eDqptnNGLAX3VBir8g-0kNXHbv',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

Russia's plunging military budget exposes a huge contradiction in Putin's policies

<p class="p1"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56d0c51f6e97c660008ba130-558-386/screen shot 2016-02-26 at 4.34.21 pm.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016 02 26 at 4.34.21 PM" data-mce-source="YouTube/Conscious" data-mce-caption="George Friedman speaks at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in December of 2015." /><p class="source"><span>YouTube/Conscious</span></p><p class="caption">George Friedman speaks at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in December of 2015.</p></div><p></p></div></div>Interstate warfare is a thankfully unusual occurrence in the present day.</p><p class="p1">State-assisted nonstate groups frequently fight governments, a scenario currently unfolding in Syria, Eastern Ukraine, and a host of other places.</p><p class="p1">But you'd have to go back to the US-led invasion of Saddam Hussein's Iraq in 2003, or the <a href="http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/Ethiopia2.pdf">Eritrea-Ethiopia conflict of the late 1990s</a> for an example of two nations fighting a full-scale ground war against one another.</p><p class="p1">The two world wars were catastrophic proof of the inherent instability of an international system that allowed for frequent interstate conflicts and that considered warfare to be a legitimate foreign policy option, rather than an absolute last resort.</p><p class="p1">Since World War II, many of the world's political and legal systems have been built around preventing states from going to war with one another - with a fairly impressive record of success.</p><p class="p1">But could that ever change? Last month, Business Insider <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-george-friedman-predictions-for-the-future-2016-2">sat down with George Friedman</a>, the<a href="https://geopoliticalfutures.com/"> founder of Geopolitical Futures</a>. Friedman is also the author of "<a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Next-100-Years-Forecast/dp/0767923057">The Next 100 Years</a>" and founder of STRATFOR, the influential geopolitical forecasting firm.</p><p class="p1">He warned that destructive interstate warfare has been a recurring characteristic of global politics and he said it could make a comeback.</p><p class="p1">Friedman noted that there have been earlier periods in which international observers have been deluded into believing nations would no longer go to war.</p><p class="p1">"From 1815 to 1871 there was not an interstate war of any substance in Europe," said Friedman. "Then came World War I, a biggie."</p><p class="p1"><span>Friedman warned that in the modern era, every period of peace has been a built-up towards a violent reckoning. "There has never been a century that has not had a systemic war - a systemic war, meaning when the entire system convulses," Friedman continued, citing the <a href="http://www.history.com/topics/seven-years-war">Seven Years War</a>, the Napoleonic Wars, and the world wars. "<span>Do you want to bet this will be the only century that doesn't have one? I'll take that bet."</span></span></p><p class="p1"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/5587e82edd0895a07b8b457a-3000-2000/gettyimages-477906526.jpg" alt="battle of waterloo" data-mce-source="Carl Court/Getty Images" data-mce-caption="Historical re-enactors take part in the second part of a large scale re-enactment of the battle of Waterloo, to mark it's bicentenary on June 20, 2015 in Waterloo, Belgium. " /><p class="source"><span>Carl Court/Getty Images</span></p><p class="caption">A symbol of things to come?Historical re-enactors take part in the second part of a large scale re-enactment of the battle of Waterloo, to mark it's bicentenary on June 20, 2015 in Waterloo, Belgium.</p></div><p></p></div></div><span><span>Friedman's analysis assumes that any international system, whether it's the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concert_of_Europe">alliance of conservative forces in Europe</a> that kept the peace after the Napoleonic Wars or the US-led post-Cold War order, has inherently fatal weaknesses. In his mind, the current international system contains the seeds of its own destruction. </span></span></p><p class="p1"><span><span>At the very least, the current world order still allows for crises that the system itself is incapable of solving. </span></span></p><p class="p1"><span><span>Friedman thinks that the decline of certain global powers could create just such a crisis.</span></span></p><p class="p1"><span><span><span>"When you have the countries like Germany, China, and Russia decline, and be replaced by others, that's when systemic wars start," Friedman explains. "That's when it gets dangerous, because they haven't yet reached a balance. So Germany united in 1871 and all hell broke loose. Japan rose in the early 20th century, and then you had chaos.</span></span></span><span><span><span> So we're looking at a systemic shift. Be ready for war."</span></span></span></p><p class="p1">Here's Friedman's entire answer when asked about the possibility of a return of interstate warfare, edited for length and clarity:</p><p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>BI: In this day and age it's relatively unusual for nations to go to war against one another.  Do you see that changing? Do you see interstate warfare making a comeback?</strong></span></p><p class="p2"><strong>GF: </strong>From 1815 to 1871 there was not an interstate war of any substance in Europe. Then came World War I, a biggie.</p><p class="p2">I'll give you another statistic. There has never been a century that has not had a systemic war - a systemic war, meaning when the entire system convulses. From the Seven Years' War in Europe to the Napoleonic Wars of the 19th century to the World Wars, every century has one.</p><p class="p2">Do you want to bet this will be the only century that doesn't have one? I'll take that bet ...</p><p class="p2">When you have the countries like Germany, China, and Russia decline, and be replaced by others, that's when systemic wars start. That's when it gets dangerous, because they haven't yet reached a balance. So Germany united in 1871 and all hell broke loose. Japan rose in the early 20th century, and then you had chaos. So we're looking at a systemic shift. Be ready for war.</p><p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>BI: Any predictions on where it could be?</strong></span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1"><strong>GF: </strong>Well the most likely emerging countries are Japan, Turkey, and Poland. So I would say Eastern Europe, the Middle East and a maritime war by Japan with the United States enjoying its own pleasures.</span></p><p class="p1"><span class="s1">But every time new powers emerge they have to find their balance. New powers are emerging, old powers are declining. It's not that process that's dangerous, it's the emerging position that's dangerous.</span> </p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-world-predictions-security-politics-international-2015-7">Chilling predictions for what the world will look like in a decade</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="1pYTM5djpSYabqeT1brJ-L8aGD5z-MR6" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', '1pYTM5djpSYabqeT1brJ-L8aGD5z-MR6',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

STRATFOR founder George Friedman: 'Be ready for war'

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/55867beb5afbd3b9138b4569-800-533/kenya-wages-war-on-smugglers-who-fund-somali-militants-2015-6.jpg" alt="New recruits belonging to the al Shabaab militant group march during a passing out parade at a military training base in Afgoye, west of the capital Mogadishu in this February 17, 2011 file photo. SOMALIA  REUTERS/Feisal Omar/Files" data-mce-source="Thomson Reuters" data-mce-caption="File photo of new recruits belonging to the al Shabaab militant group marching during a passing out parade at a military training base in Afgoye" /><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">File photo of new recruits belonging to the al Shabaab militant group marching during a passing out parade at a military training base in Afgoye</p></div><p></p></div></div>The US military carried out a drone strike over the weekend targeting a training camp run by the jihadist group al Shabaab north of the Somali capital of Mogadishu over the weekend, killing more than 150 fighters, the Pentagon said on Monday, according to Reuters.</p><p>"It was a successful strike," said Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis, adding US intelligence indicated the group was preparing for a "large scale attack" and posed a threat to US and African Union forces in Somalia.</p><p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/08/world/africa/us-strikes-kill-150-shabab-fighters-in-somalia-officials-say.html?smid=tw-nytimes&amp;smtyp=cur">According</a> to The New York Times, the strike targeted a graduation ceremony at a "training facility" in Rasa.</p><p>The town of Rasa Kaadale sits 120 kilometers northeast of Mogadishu, close to the front line of Shabaab control according to <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-15336689">a September 2015 BBC map</a> of territorial control in the country.</p><p>The strike comes after a series of major attacks attributed to Al Qaeda's powerful Somali affiliate. </p><p>On January 15th, al Shabaab <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35364593">overran a Kenyan military base in el-Ade</a>, in southwestern Somalia, killing as many as 60 soldiers. The Kenyan military, which is part of a multi-national military force aimed at assisting the country's government in securing the country, <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35408463">pulled out of el-Ade 11 days later</a>, effectively ceding the territory to the jihadists.</p><p>Last month, Shabaab claimed <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/13/africa/somalia-plane-bomb-al-shabaab/">responsibility for an attempted February 2nd bomb attack</a> on a Somali passenger plane. The bomber was the only person killed in the attack and the plane was able to safely land in Mogadishu.</p><p>But the plot revealed that Shabaab had both the ability and the ambition to detonate a bomb onboard a passenger airliner, something the group had never attempted before. </p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_left"><div><div class="image on-image"><img src="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/56ddd93852bcd01b008b4a64-964-621/screen shot 2016-03-07 at 2.33.19 pm.png" alt="Screen Shot 2016 03 07 at 2.33.19 PM" data-mce-source="Google Maps" data-mce-caption="Location of Rasa Kaadale, Somalia" /><p class="source"><span>Google Maps</span></p><p class="caption">Location of Rasa Kaadale, Somalia</p></div><p></p></div></div>Shabaab lost control over much of Somalia in 2011 and 2012 after a sustained coalition offensive against the group.</p><p>But it retained an extensive terror infrastructure and alarming battlefield capabilities.</p><p>The group is particularly dangerous because of its ability to strike beyond Somalia's borders.</p><p>Al Shabaab is<span> responsible for several major attacks in neighboring Kenya, including the </span><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/interactive/2013/oct/04/westgate-mall-attacks-kenya-terror">September 2013 Westgate Mall attack</a><span> in Nairobi, in which 67 people were killed; and the April 2015 </span><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/kenya-just-shut-down-somali-owned-money-transfer-companies-2015-4">massacre of 147 students</a><span> at Garissa University, in western Kenya.</span></p><p>This week's airstrike against the group shows that the US and its partners are concerned that Shabaab is capable of building on its recent string of attacks both inside and outside of the country.</p><p>But while the strike may have killed scores of potential Shabaab fighters, airstrikes against the group have had a mixed record in terms of actually changing its behavior - Shabaab waged some of its deadliest attacks in the years after domineering Shabaab leader Ahmed Godane's <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/05/al-shabaab-leader-godane-killed-us-airstrike-somalia">September 2014 death in a US drone strike</a>.</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/united-states-war-conspiracies-actually-real-iran-contra-2016-2">These US war conspiracies turned out to be true</a></h3>        <div>            <div>    <script src="http://player.ooyala.com/v3/6e12e8b3387a44daacfb73afba25a76e"></script>    <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="VsajNkeDrUIwltmG9sl_aoNX5sS2_X7o" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>    <script>    if (typeof RunFunctions === 'undefined') { var RunFunctions = []; }     RunFunctions.push(function()    {         var ooyalapopvideo = OO.Player.create('ooyalaplayer_popvideo', 'VsajNkeDrUIwltmG9sl_aoNX5sS2_X7o',{ autoplay: 'false' });     });    </script>    <noscript><div>Please enable Javascript to watch this video</div></noscript></div>        </div>        <script>(function() { function createPlayer() { OO.ready(function() { RunFunctions.forEach(function(ooyalaFunction) { ooyalaFunction(); }); RunFunctions = [];}); } createPlayer(); }()); </script>    </div><meta content="cms.next" name="cmsei" />

Armin Rosen

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