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Arguably the only reason to be bullish risk assets right now is there are no reasons to be bullish

Aug 20, 2015, 19:25 IST

"Arguably the only reason to be bullish risk assets right now is there are no reasons to be bullish."

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In a note to clients on Wednesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett gives a deeply contrarian reason for liking risk assets - like stocks - right now.

Namely, the reason is that there are no reasons.

Harntett highlights the following chart showing the divergence between high-yield bonds and the stock market, which first emerged last year and was never resolved.

BAML

In recent weeks, however, high-yield bonds have been falling again, but as Hartnett notes, of the 36 sectors in the high-yield market, only 5 have seen total return losses this year: metals & mining, paper, aerospace, energy, and steel.

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Hartnett adds, "That said, our tactical sentiment signals flashed 'buy' in July, and remain contrarian 'bullish' as shown by the latest 'fear' reading on our cross-asset Bull & Bear Index."

BAML

"True, our tactical buy signals are being blunted by two significant events: the start of a Fed hiking cycle; and the start of a Chinese devaluation cycle. But bearish positioning is a necessary condition to create a low in risk assets."

So the only reason not to hate the market is that the market is only giving you reasons for hating it. Got that?

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