Arguably the only reason to be bullish risk assets right now is there are no reasons to be bullish
"Arguably the only reason to be bullish risk assets right now is there are no reasons to be bullish."
In a note to clients on Wednesday, Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Michael Hartnett gives a deeply contrarian reason for liking risk assets - like stocks - right now.
Namely, the reason is that there are no reasons.
Harntett highlights the following chart showing the divergence between high-yield bonds and the stock market, which first emerged last year and was never resolved.
In recent weeks, however, high-yield bonds have been falling again, but as Hartnett notes, of the 36 sectors in the high-yield market, only 5 have seen total return losses this year: metals & mining, paper, aerospace, energy, and steel.Hartnett adds, "That said, our tactical sentiment signals flashed 'buy' in July, and remain contrarian 'bullish' as shown by the latest 'fear' reading on our cross-asset Bull & Bear Index."
"True, our tactical buy signals are being blunted by two significant events: the start of a Fed hiking cycle; and the start of a Chinese devaluation cycle. But bearish positioning is a necessary condition to create a low in risk assets."So the only reason not to hate the market is that the market is only giving you reasons for hating it. Got that?